The opposite of "Sell in May" is going to occur in the year 2018.
Reason: The first peak of the year occured already, which moves the second peak further into the future after May 2018. And there are too many sectors and industries which did not decline during the last weeks. For example technology and small caps (Russell 2000).
I expect a drop on May 8, lasting only one day, maybe two or three days. But then I expect a breakout higher towards 2745-2750. Because I was already bullish that May 3 could mark a low followed by a rise. Which happened and therefore confirmed my idea. The only issue was that the market moved higher so quickly that resistance was tested already. Next I see the support hold above the low of May 3, followed by the breakout which I mentioned.
Long entry: 2635 (2645)
Target: 2745 (2755)
Stop loss: 2600
Reason: The first peak of the year occured already, which moves the second peak further into the future after May 2018. And there are too many sectors and industries which did not decline during the last weeks. For example technology and small caps (Russell 2000).
I expect a drop on May 8, lasting only one day, maybe two or three days. But then I expect a breakout higher towards 2745-2750. Because I was already bullish that May 3 could mark a low followed by a rise. Which happened and therefore confirmed my idea. The only issue was that the market moved higher so quickly that resistance was tested already. Next I see the support hold above the low of May 3, followed by the breakout which I mentioned.
Long entry: 2635 (2645)
Target: 2745 (2755)
Stop loss: 2600
Trade active:
The S&P 500 didn't drop to 2645 on May 8, only to 2655.2
This means the market is bullish. Entry before the close of May 7 gives the following setup:
Entry: 2670
Stop loss: 2635
Target: 2745
Risk, Reward 2.1
This means the market is bullish. Entry before the close of May 7 gives the following setup:
Entry: 2670
Stop loss: 2635
Target: 2745
Risk, Reward 2.1
Comment:
The expected decline for the S&P 500 (which I had mentioned in my last comment) occured on Tuesday May 15. It took me by suprise, because after it didn't happen last Friday I thought it would happen today on Wednesday May 16.
I'm now trying today to close (the long-position from 2670) if the market does a bounce towards the open gap area around 2724-2726.
I'm now trying today to close (the long-position from 2670) if the market does a bounce towards the open gap area around 2724-2726.
Trade closed: target reached:
Long position closed at 2726 today.
This means I was most likely wrong with "Buy in May and stay", you better go away with longs in May. New short position placed at 2726:
This means I was most likely wrong with "Buy in May and stay", you better go away with longs in May. New short position placed at 2726:
But I expect a decline could occur this Friday May 11. Only time will tell if it wil mark a bearish turning point or if it will play out just a pullback inside of the uptrend.