S&P500: can we get some downside to ignite the upside?

Currently, IMHO the ideal setup would be a small c-wave down into the ideal wave-4 target zone followed by a rally to SPX3045-3075 which would then provide for a nice setup for a larger decline into late next month to adhere to the pre-election year seasonal average pattern this market has been tracking well all year so far (see here).

A break below SPX2940 from current levels would put this Bullish thesis on high alert as then only three waves up have been made: a b-wave.

However, it seems somehow all roads somehow lead to Rome, where even that b-wave scenario can see SPX2700+/- 50 without any impact on the bigger picture move to SPX3800-4200 going forward.

I posted about these bigger picture scenarios here.

Trade safe!