My guess on how the 2 supercycles of bitcoin and S&P 500 will likely end.
Masses attention on the stock market and cryptos are fading BUT there is still money to be burned and I would expect a victorious new ATH for both the stock market and the crypto to take place somewhere next year!
1. The whole internet is so aware of shorting the market that is "entering recession" due to rise in interest rates and inflation pressures. While at the same time Robinhood gave access to all its members to short.
2. There is still money sitting on the sidelines waiting for a positive turn ( a new dopamine cycle) so to be invested in the market and crypto ( the final burn/trap). The self-fulling prophecy of Bitcoin to 100k has to come "true" prob not 100 but close to 90k so everybody will be joining the last part of the cycle in a super euphoric state. More money traped for decades to come. Aside from crypto a lot of retail is traped on many SPACS/IPOs, if at any given moment there is a relief rally they will put more in order to break even their losses.
3. Covid is still a thing but is slowly fading away... no way in my perspective to allow a market crash while we are returning to "normal", all that money being printed in case of a market crash will not be "burned/spent", we did not even have a proper X-mas yet :)
4. Our heroes Musk+Bezos+Dr Burry warned us of a market crash ( check my previous post about it)
5. Do you think Fed will take the blame for the market crash?
All the above statements are out of my head. This is a more philosophical approach rather than a concrete fundamental and technical one, BUT as everybody expects a market crash soon I like to be on the other side...IMO the market will crash when nobody will be thinking about it!!! when inflation will be down, and when Covid will no longer be in our "head".
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"
Look first/Then Leap
Masses attention on the stock market and cryptos are fading BUT there is still money to be burned and I would expect a victorious new ATH for both the stock market and the crypto to take place somewhere next year!
1. The whole internet is so aware of shorting the market that is "entering recession" due to rise in interest rates and inflation pressures. While at the same time Robinhood gave access to all its members to short.
2. There is still money sitting on the sidelines waiting for a positive turn ( a new dopamine cycle) so to be invested in the market and crypto ( the final burn/trap). The self-fulling prophecy of Bitcoin to 100k has to come "true" prob not 100 but close to 90k so everybody will be joining the last part of the cycle in a super euphoric state. More money traped for decades to come. Aside from crypto a lot of retail is traped on many SPACS/IPOs, if at any given moment there is a relief rally they will put more in order to break even their losses.
3. Covid is still a thing but is slowly fading away... no way in my perspective to allow a market crash while we are returning to "normal", all that money being printed in case of a market crash will not be "burned/spent", we did not even have a proper X-mas yet :)
4. Our heroes Musk+Bezos+Dr Burry warned us of a market crash ( check my previous post about it)
5. Do you think Fed will take the blame for the market crash?
All the above statements are out of my head. This is a more philosophical approach rather than a concrete fundamental and technical one, BUT as everybody expects a market crash soon I like to be on the other side...IMO the market will crash when nobody will be thinking about it!!! when inflation will be down, and when Covid will no longer be in our "head".
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"
Look first/Then Leap