Looking back, we see from the rejection of the Kalman smoother during increased recession probability periods (RECPROUS) leads to 28-50% declines. If we assume ~35%, that puts it at 2700.
When Probability of Recession is >5%, and the prime rate accelerates after a plateau, we are on track for a recession. Hard landing is ~2200. Maybe less.
Be safe.
P.s. One one outlier in the early 70s, but we all know what happened there.
When Probability of Recession is >5%, and the prime rate accelerates after a plateau, we are on track for a recession. Hard landing is ~2200. Maybe less.
Be safe.
P.s. One one outlier in the early 70s, but we all know what happened there.