montanniv

S&P500 So far, so good, but...

Short
TVC:SPX   S&P 500 Index
Started in Mar2009, the uptrend is still finely going on as a series, according to the very definition of a trend, of rising highs and rising lows. There was an interruption in Oct2015 “!”, where the Index failed to achieve a higher high, to even reach a lower low in Jan2016. The uptrend later resumes as its main trend line at 1765 was left intact, just for us to remember a trend remains in place until it is reversed. Currently a monthly bearish engulfing could take place, providing the close on Aug31st occurs below 2431. As an early signal intraday, I would consider the breach of 2405.70 as dangerous. The current series of rising lows would objectively be over. For the major uptrend to resume, it would then have to recover above the record high so far at 2491. Providing we can afford a countertrend position with a stop/loss 4.27 % away from entry point, I would sell at 2390, stop/loss 2492, and no taking profit as this would be used as a hedge within a very unfriendly environment. The main uptrend line at 2380 would have to give way to comfort the bearish scenario but when it does, things may accelerate, that’s why I would take the risk to play the end of the uptrend before it happens.
Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.