Trump wants to win re-election. Trump can’t win if the US economy enters recession.
The only way Trump can possibly avoid recession is if the Fed cuts interests rates now. If the Fed waits til the market has tanked in order to cut rates, it will be too late to avoid recession via monetary stimulus that point. Trump needs rate cuts now! In order to get this he is using the tariffs to tank the stock market now to force the Fed’s hand.
The Fed meets June 19, July 19, and September something. They don’t meet in August. These next two meetings are important.
I believe the SPX will find a temporary bottom right around this first Fed meeting in 2 weeks, for a 3% decline.
If the Fed comes out with a surprise rate cut in June or July this could send the market higher (not much of surprise as probabilities are now at 80% for a rate cut in September but would still be a surprise). If the Fed does nothing I’d expect more selling & finding new support lower.
If SPX continues selling after June 19, I’d look for support between 2550 & 2475. I don’t think the Federal Reserve would let the SPX get that low again though...
The only way Trump can possibly avoid recession is if the Fed cuts interests rates now. If the Fed waits til the market has tanked in order to cut rates, it will be too late to avoid recession via monetary stimulus that point. Trump needs rate cuts now! In order to get this he is using the tariffs to tank the stock market now to force the Fed’s hand.
The Fed meets June 19, July 19, and September something. They don’t meet in August. These next two meetings are important.
I believe the SPX will find a temporary bottom right around this first Fed meeting in 2 weeks, for a 3% decline.
If the Fed comes out with a surprise rate cut in June or July this could send the market higher (not much of surprise as probabilities are now at 80% for a rate cut in September but would still be a surprise). If the Fed does nothing I’d expect more selling & finding new support lower.
If SPX continues selling after June 19, I’d look for support between 2550 & 2475. I don’t think the Federal Reserve would let the SPX get that low again though...