SOFI
intra day is trading at >$16 as I type this. On December 10th SOFI was printing below $15.46
Since then, it has tested the $15.46 level twice since its initial drop below that level (a 20 calendar-day period).
Lets back up in time some for context:
On Nov 11 SOFI printed intra day at $24.63
Since then, SOFI has been trending downward and has fallen as low as $13.67 (on Dec 17)
Dec 03 was the first time since Sept 22 SOFI was printing <$15.46.
After consolidating in between the $14-15.50 range, SOFI seems to have broken out to the upside.
Historically (although a small sample of history due to it being a new stock) $17.17 will be the next major area of resistance if SOFI continues to rally to the upside.
Historically, SOFI has had 13 major upward/downward tests of $17.17 on the monthly candles, it is no stranger to this level.
Of those 13 attempts to break through $17.17:
Bullish Breakouts: 4
- Monthly candle open below and closed above $17.17
- The proceeding Monthly candle open and closed above $17.17
Bearish Breakout: 2
- Monthly candle open above and closed below $17.17
- The proceeding Monthly candle open and closed below $17.17
Positive Backtests: 4
- Monthly candle opens above $17.17
- Monthly candle either has a wick or body that closes below $17.17
- The proceeding Monthly candle opens below but closes above $17.17
Negative Backtests: 3
- Monthly Candle opens below but closes above (or has a wick in the case) that prints above $17.17
- The proceeding Monthly candle closed below $17.17
Overall Bullish reactions: 8
Overall Bearish Reactions: 7
Total # of Bullish runs: 3
Total # of Bearish runs: 3
The picture I am painting is the IMPORTANCE of the $17.17 level for SOFI.
Take-aways:
As SOFI moves above $17.17 and breaks $18.65 there is a high historical probability that it tests 24.63 or higher.
As SOFI moves below $17.17 and breaks below $15.46 there is a high probability that SOFI tests $13.67
SOFI's price action seems to be condensing over time very slowly and is trading within a symmetrical wedge pattern in its most macro sense.
SOFI's median price is (technically 17.54) but the $17.17(range) acts like a magnet, accelerating both bullish and bearish momentum
The chart is very Sine-wave-ish, the cycles are apparent.
Bulls as of now seem to have taken control and are looking to again test $17.17
Last thing of note: the wave-like nature of the stocks entire history is very similar to what we see in an accumulation/distribution phase B of a Wyckoff pattern.
My predication is that $17.17 is tested in the next 30-60 days and will signal a massive bull run to new ATH's under one condition: THE NATIONAL BANK CHARTER gets FULLY approved. If the bulls can continue momentum through Jan., come Feb. there MAY BE a chance that we get word on this news which would accelerate SOFI past 18.65 and attempt to break the ATH of $28.26. If the bulls lose control at $17.17 I would look to $15.56 as support.
This said, I will be looking at jumping into ATM SOFI calls (early) @ >$17.50 or OTM (late) at >$18.65
ATM Puts would be considered <$15.46
Of course, chart and news depending as that time approaches (if it does at all)
Not financial advise. Do your of analysis and DD before entering or exiting any trade of your own.
