This is the bearish case for S&P500. There is a bullish case which I'll publish later.
The rally since the bottom on 22nd March can be counted up to this point as a double zigzag WXY as shown in this chart.
The second zigzag of this double zigzag has followed the purple pitchfork nicely and has been tagging along its median line, and its C wave can be counted...
Good analog here re '99-02 suggests the USD is may not yet be done despite the hubris around Gold and Silver. We are at a key inflection point, upsloper needs to hold for USD bull market to persist and if it does it is likely the market tries to test 2001-02 highs.
“History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes,” Mark Twain
9yr H&S consolidation with good down sloper median respect, looking for a break of the neckline to further confirm the move.
Initial Tgt 1.35
Secondary Tgt 1.10
Trade is negated on a break and close of the ML downsloper.
I think this is still a pullback. Usually false breaks happen within a 1.125% extension of the previous range.This low was broken within at least a 1.25% and this catalogs this break as a real break and not just like a possible false break.
Let's see how this plays out.
As discussed last week, I am once again looking at NZDCAD with a short perspective.
The pink ML has yet to be hit, as the value area from around April 17 held price off for now. Price extended quickly up and found resistance where sellers took control previously. At this point in time it also coincides nicely with the pink UMLH and price action gave us a mini...
The intersection of the median line (ML) of the upsloping pitchfork (PF) and the warning line (WL) of the downsloping pitchfork, creates an area of confluence (highlighted in turquoise) where there are alot of sellers in position. Confluence areas gives the trader an edge into the future in spotting massive accumulation of buyers and sellers.
As price approaches...