This is worth a try here - LONG;
Overall environment is a mixed bag, with a strong deflationary bias at the moment. Rates (and the $) is sitting smack in the middle of all possible ranges thus, anything can happen here - and most likely will. If this doesn't turn here (quickly!) then it's no good. (Gotta watch it closely, with narrow stops.)
Overall environment is a mixed bag, with a strong deflationary bias at the moment. Rates (and the $) is sitting smack in the middle of all possible ranges thus, anything can happen here - and most likely will. If this doesn't turn here (quickly!) then it's no good. (Gotta watch it closely, with narrow stops.)
Trade closed: target reached:
We're Not bailing out here, just yet ...
... rather tighten those Stops for a potential (likely temporary) pull back!
Trade closed: target reached:
So far this is traveling by the numbers - both ways;
Watch for the potential next turn (arrows), here.
Comment:
We went LONG off of that Stop Hunt;
This continues to motor on by the numbers (arrows). Although it's neutral at the moment, the next move is likely a sustained upside move.
Comment:
... as I was saying ...
... this is likely to remain a LONG for quite a while.
Comment:
This thing can cruise here quite a bit ...
... so might wanna hang LONG, for quite a stretch!
Trade closed manually:
(Late to update this to FLAT, for a couple of days now.)
The following aims to be referencing long term holding/investment - i.e., buy-and-hold strategies in the metals, as opposed to any, short term trading advice.
As far as (all) the PMs are concerned, this aspect of the current state of affairs may deserve a special mention;
The G/S Ratio (as well as the Philadelphia G & S index), at this point, is providing a clear, technically unambiguous picture, one that is strongly suggestive of potentially serious head winds for the metals, likely for quite some time to come! (6+ months ...)
Coincidentally, a number of pairs (triplets) of Leading Indicators
(such as
- ISM Purchasing Managers Index & CPI core & Long-term yield increase/acceleration; or
- CPI & nom. GDP & {b]which end of the yield curve(?) causes flattening/inversion;
- etc., ..
- here, one uses the CPI + nom. GDP growth + 10-year Yield rate of change / acceleration)
also happen to align rather coherently, in almost all of their possible (meaningful) combination. For example, while the PMI & SMI & GDP growth are currently firmly sub 50, this immediately points to the obvious next question regarding the remaining variable, I.e:
Which end of the yield curve would cause flattening/inversion in the near- or foreseeable future, given the current, historically sub-par starting point for the long-end of the yield curve? ...
Should the answer turn out to be "the long-end", in this combination, that would imply some serious and lasting headwinds for the metals and related (equity) positions.
Factoring all of the above, the following;
1) Single "naked" positions face now, and likely to retain going forward, inferior Risk/Reward Ratios from these present starting points; (I.e., Don't do it!)
2) All "equity positions" in the metals will be inferior compared to outright ownership of the metals themselves, especially with some downside protection (hedge) in place; (I.e, Do it, if you must, but hedge - dynamically.)
3) Gold (the metal itself) should form the long-leg in any spread/hedged position, and given the present, historically low starting point for US long term yields, the long-end of the curve is much more likely to accelerate during any near term yield increase - curve flattening/"un-inversion" -, negatively impacting all net-long positions in the PMs. (I.e., The rate of change in the increase of long-term yields will have the most negative impact on net-long positions, e.g., Do not use leverage - to say the least!)
The following aims to be referencing long term holding/investment - i.e., buy-and-hold strategies in the metals, as opposed to any, short term trading advice.
As far as (all) the PMs are concerned, this aspect of the current state of affairs may deserve a special mention;
Coincidentally, a number of pairs (triplets) of Leading Indicators
(such as
- ISM Purchasing Managers Index & CPI core & Long-term yield increase/acceleration; or
- CPI & nom. GDP & {b]which end of the yield curve(?) causes flattening/inversion;
- etc., ..
- here, one uses the CPI + nom. GDP growth + 10-year Yield rate of change / acceleration)
also happen to align rather coherently, in almost all of their possible (meaningful) combination. For example, while the PMI & SMI & GDP growth are currently firmly sub 50, this immediately points to the obvious next question regarding the remaining variable, I.e:
Which end of the yield curve would cause flattening/inversion in the near- or foreseeable future, given the current, historically sub-par starting point for the long-end of the yield curve? ...
Should the answer turn out to be "the long-end", in this combination, that would imply some serious and lasting headwinds for the metals and related (equity) positions.
Factoring all of the above, the following;
1) Single "naked" positions face now, and likely to retain going forward, inferior Risk/Reward Ratios from these present starting points; (I.e., Don't do it!)
2) All "equity positions" in the metals will be inferior compared to outright ownership of the metals themselves, especially with some downside protection (hedge) in place; (I.e, Do it, if you must, but hedge - dynamically.)
3) Gold (the metal itself) should form the long-leg in any spread/hedged position, and given the present, historically low starting point for US long term yields, the long-end of the curve is much more likely to accelerate during any near term yield increase - curve flattening/"un-inversion" -, negatively impacting all net-long positions in the PMs. (I.e., The rate of change in the increase of long-term yields will have the most negative impact on net-long positions, e.g., Do not use leverage - to say the least!)
Trade active:
(Much like Gold ) this has the looks of some upside potential, especially after those 2-3 daily hammers. Fundamentally it's hard to see how it's gonna make it's way too far up there however, the technical picture suggests otherwise, for now. LONG
Comment:
Already LONG, this weeks action in the G/S;
... prompted us to significantly increase those LONGs
Comment:
Long - BUT a long term (strong) SHORT Bias
(As opposed to Gold) the technical picture here suggests a Long, for now (somewhat supported by a small increase in Retail short Interests).
The near term, overall picture in the PMs remains mixed at the moment but what hasn't changed is a strong negative (Short) outlook, further out
Side Note; In situations like this the trade must be a positive carry from the moment of entry otherwise it's no good! (I.e., exit it immediately!) This one was/is never in the negative - including the stops - hence, chances are that it's "good".