digital_precision

Palantir... the good, the bad, and the MACD.

Long
NYSE:PLTR   Palantir Technologies Inc.
I've been a fan of this thing since I read a book by Palantir (and Paypal) founder Peter Thiel called "Zero To One". He's one of the "Paypal mafia" that have gone on to become mega millionaires and/or billionaires. Elon Musk is in this club, as is Marc Andreesen, etc. These guys have all gone on to be extremely successful, to say the least. They've started various companies you may have heard of..... Yelp, LinkedIn, SpaceX, Tesla, Youtube, etc.

So, all things considered, I would give Palantir the benefit of the doubt. These guys seem to know what they are doing. Don't believe me? Google "Paypal Mafia" and see for yourself.

That being said, I am not going to buy a turd of a stock just because I am a fanboy, so here is a more technical reason. The MACD is having a rather strong divergence with the price action over the last month and a half. This, in addition to the price support zone provided by earlier lows, strongly suggests PLTR is at a bottom. Today it had some particularly strange price action, as it exploded upwards and then slowly retraced basically the whole distance and closed near the open price. This may look like a bad thing, but I am thinking it's more of a price test and/or accumulation move. While Palantir is still relatively expensive by comparison, I believe this is about the lowest you're going to get it. It has MAJOR upside if it continues it's growth trajectory.

Downside - share dilution. People have been whining about CEO Alex Karp and other execs cashing in some of their stock like it's some sort of cash grab. Problem is, he's been on board at Palantir since the founding in 2003. That's nearly 20 years. People forget, Palantir was one of Silicon Valleys most successful private companies before it finally decided to IPO and put up with all the problems that can arise from being a publicly traded company. Rather than pay the execs lavish cash bonuses smaller companies choose to channel the money back into the company. Instead, company execs are "paid" primarily in company shares. So, no, I don't think this is a "cash grab" by Karp. He's basically being reimbursed for the past 2 decades of his life.

Bigger downside - Growth company headwinds in the general market. I don't think Palantir will be able to stand on it's own against a market correction. The Fed-speak about raising interest rates makes long term investments in growth companies much less attractive. This is why you've seen all the 2020 growth darlings get spanked in 2021. As monetary conditions tighten, these companies may very well continue to get disproportionately effected...including Palantir.

Great company. Cutting edge software so good the biggest companies swear by it, including the U.S. Government.

Comment:
As for the very recent activity, I think the pivot point analysis best explains it. On Tradingview, search for "Pivot Points Standard", and turn on the S1/S2 and R1/R2, along with the actual Pivot point. Anything more than that just compresses the chart and anything beyond the second Support/Resistance level is probably unreliable anyhow.

The Pivot point calculation will change with time intervals. So, in this case, look at the 5m and the 30m timeframes. You'll clearly see that the price has found support at the Pivot Point of both timeframes, although they aren't using the same calculation.
Trade active:
As of 2:00 the next day it's volume and volatility are uncommonly low. Bollinger Bands are tightening on 30m bars. I am relatively confident it's poising itself for a breakout, and I believe that breakout will be upward.
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