NZDUSD buying opportunity | 16 December 2022

On the H4 timeframe, NZDUSD is ascending within a bullish channel. On 13 December, price spiked upon the release of softer than anticipated US CPI data, and came to test the 0.64550 where significant indecision can be seen between buyers and sellers from the ranging price action. Sellers eventually won out on the back of fundamental fuel on 15 December when a 50 bps Fed rate hike and hawkish FOMC statements caused NZDUSD to decline until the 0.63280 support level. This represents our entry point, where we forecast a bullish reversal back to the 0.64550 level which is also our take profit level. A break below to the next support level at 0.62650 represents our stop loss. Stochastics have dipped below the 20th percentile while price exceeded the lower bound of the Bollinger Bands, indicating that current prices are experiencing oversold conditions and supporting our bullish bias.

If price comes to test the 0.64550 resistance level again as we predict, investors should pay close attention to the Core PCE Price Index due to be released on 23 December, which may give price the bullish fuel to break above or keep it firmly under the resistance level.