NZDJPY Short - Outside test of rising trendline
I spotted this idea on the weekly chart but there is important detail on the Daily. So we have price action having been kept below the weekly 200MA and then sliced through the rising trendline it has turned and come back up to test the outside of the trendline which is also near to another touch of the now falling weekly 200 MA.
Looking for a Fibo 38.2 (RR of 3:1) retrace on this run up isn't asking too much to start with as a target and that sits nicely in the previous structure area that has seen so much action looking back. There are caveats to consider such as where the little red line is that resistance has turned support and been touched so when/If were to reach there I would be moving stops to break even as a precaution. Alternately you could take a third off at that level, a third off at 38.2 retrace and then let a third run on if it does, happy days.
I've put stops a reasonable distance away to give adequate RR but also take into account a little area of prior S/R should it decide to pop there before falling and I wouldn't be doing a hard stop here, it would have to be a close above this week.
If you wanted to be more conservative you could just wait for another touch of the weekly 200ma, if it gets there however i'm happy with what I see here already.
Looking for a Fibo 38.2 (RR of 3:1) retrace on this run up isn't asking too much to start with as a target and that sits nicely in the previous structure area that has seen so much action looking back. There are caveats to consider such as where the little red line is that resistance has turned support and been touched so when/If were to reach there I would be moving stops to break even as a precaution. Alternately you could take a third off at that level, a third off at 38.2 retrace and then let a third run on if it does, happy days.
I've put stops a reasonable distance away to give adequate RR but also take into account a little area of prior S/R should it decide to pop there before falling and I wouldn't be doing a hard stop here, it would have to be a close above this week.
If you wanted to be more conservative you could just wait for another touch of the weekly 200ma, if it gets there however i'm happy with what I see here already.
Comment:
Price has now reached the red line 'trouble area' and as you will see on a lower time frame paused a little here. We'll see today if it moves further down to our target. Stops moved to BE.
Comment:
Hit the 50% retrace today so hopefully we''ll now see some downside continuation.
Comment:
Update:
An intraday look at this trade for the past 24 hours. Whilst it stretched back to the 618 fib I think it's formed an H&S pattern which it's broken through below and now up testing the breakthrough point. We'll see what happens next week.
An intraday look at this trade for the past 24 hours. Whilst it stretched back to the 618 fib I think it's formed an H&S pattern which it's broken through below and now up testing the breakthrough point. We'll see what happens next week.
Comment:
After so nearly getting taken out at BE price action seems to now be falling following the seemingly double top. Let's see if this time we get some traction to the downside.