NIFTY did a MACD Bearish Cross. 1-month correction very likely.

The Nifty 50 Index (NIFTY) gave us an excellent bottom buy opportunity on November 03 2023 (see chart below) easily hitting our 21000 target and transitioning into a longer term Channel Up:


Right now the index is coming off the strongest 1W red week since October 23 2023, the first pull-back after a series of 4 straight green weeks. This week will complete a MACD Bearish Cross on the 1W time-frame, the first such formation since September 25 2023 and before that, December 26 2022.

Naturally this is a technically bearish pattern and being so rare suggests that it shouldn't be taken lightly, even though we have been on this Channel Up since June 2022. More specifically, those 2 MACD Bearish Cross occurences delivered monthly corrections of -6.75% and -7.45% respectively, so an average of -7% pull-back. Both also hit the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the Channel's last Higher Low.

As a result, assuming a minimum correction of -6.75%, we are now turning bearish on NIFTY, targeting 21100. That may make contact, or at least come very close to the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).


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