sreebhashyam

NIFTY: Bulls face "Red" Sea.

NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
Simple statements are powerful. Sometimes one needs a shake up to understand them.

Butterfly's effect is a case in point. There is a reason to compare with birds and butterflies simply because their sense of timing.

For the bulls the birds of overbought not just in Index in many counters were chirping, while the narrative was looking for ahead of times. We simply chose to ignore.

We preferred any fall is temporary but little we realise, a move that sans correction can cause lot of pain. In simple words, what cannot be digested has to be vomited. A recurring correction is always does lot of good. Last 9 gaps we were denied, now we are rushing to cover some of them.

We covered one, printed the three-line bearish engulfing pattern. This is much more bearish than a simple bearish pattern. For the records the next gap fill is around the 21030 and the one thereafter is much deeper around the 20500. Suffice to say the mid Bollinger band is the one to watch which is creeping and currently around the 20680 area.

Elsewhere, the red sea is in the news, on reported interruptions to the international trade by the Houthis. This news has been there for some time. The one to watch is Strait of Hormuz. Crude price action fall on the backdrop of rise in inventories is a case in point.

Markets were search for the cause of the collapse that ranged many, all were very much in print and electronic media before the start of the day. Only cases of Covid which again reported just an hour into the markets. Clearly too much ownership brought the cards collapse. The fall is ferocious more than 1:9 one rise for every 9 fall. Many counters 5% plus fall.

Everything rotates and financial markets are no exception. We typically rotate based on the recent price action in 90-day cycle. The sine cycle of this both matches thus the bigger friction. Ideally this correction which started should last into Jan 10. Let's see how it unfolds.

For now 21300 which supposed to have been support now becomes supply zone. While the next gap around 21000 is targeted.

Any deeper fall towards 20930-950 is temporary buy zone for move back to 21030. A close below 21000 warns deeper correction.










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