Review of the week August 10-14
I had posted a detailed view (Link below). I outlined two possibilities, out of which possibility 1 got confirmed and nearly hit the lower range of target zone of 11380-11440.
In summary, last week was 4 day consolidation and then a large engulfing candle which engulfed all 4 prior candles. Technically speaking, this was the retest of high made on July 29, which failed, waiting for confirmation.============================================================================================================================================================================
Big picture and observations for the week
NIFTY had a mildly negative week with 0.32% close down.
BANK NIFTY also mildly down 0.34%.
VIX formed a hammer candle with 4%.
Option data shows the 11000 to 11300 as the expected range.
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There are two possibilities for the coming week.
Possibility 1: Consolidation in zone 11312 - 11050. This basically means, the move on Friday could not get great follow up selling.
Possibility 2: New downswing starts which takes NIFTY below 11000, around 10830 as the first target. This move has to be fast and completed this week to show strength in selling and confirmation of intermediate top.
I do not consider any up swing possibility as it does not fit my long term view. Also the chart is not showing invalidation of my view.
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My Plan for the week
The level to change my view is daily close above 11312. Here I’ll close any positional shorts and accept my view has gone wrong.
For start, I’ll assume Possibility 1 and create shorts in the form of spreads with targets around 11050 zone.
If NIFTY breaks below yesterday’s low on Monday with follow up selling, then buying PUTS may be a good idea for the first target around 10830.
============================================================================================================================================================================
Last week's view
I had posted a detailed view (Link below). I outlined two possibilities, out of which possibility 1 got confirmed and nearly hit the lower range of target zone of 11380-11440.
In summary, last week was 4 day consolidation and then a large engulfing candle which engulfed all 4 prior candles. Technically speaking, this was the retest of high made on July 29, which failed, waiting for confirmation.============================================================================================================================================================================
Big picture and observations for the week
NIFTY had a mildly negative week with 0.32% close down.
BANK NIFTY also mildly down 0.34%.
VIX formed a hammer candle with 4%.
Option data shows the 11000 to 11300 as the expected range.
============================================================================================================================================================================
There are two possibilities for the coming week.
Possibility 1: Consolidation in zone 11312 - 11050. This basically means, the move on Friday could not get great follow up selling.
Possibility 2: New downswing starts which takes NIFTY below 11000, around 10830 as the first target. This move has to be fast and completed this week to show strength in selling and confirmation of intermediate top.
I do not consider any up swing possibility as it does not fit my long term view. Also the chart is not showing invalidation of my view.
============================================================================================================================================================================
My Plan for the week
The level to change my view is daily close above 11312. Here I’ll close any positional shorts and accept my view has gone wrong.
For start, I’ll assume Possibility 1 and create shorts in the form of spreads with targets around 11050 zone.
If NIFTY breaks below yesterday’s low on Monday with follow up selling, then buying PUTS may be a good idea for the first target around 10830.
============================================================================================================================================================================
Last week's view
