NIFTY
After giving breakout to the level of 15431 on 31st May 2021 nifty keeps moving up on very sluggish price movement till 15th June 2021.
On 18th June 2021 we have seen possible retest of breakout level of 15431 along with hammer candle formation, on very next day we also see similar kind of trend where we have seen gap down opening for that day and then prices pushed up. Day closes near its high and above the previous day’s close, which is a good bullish sign only concern was previous day’s high which was still intact and not broken.
After narrow range bullish day on June 22nd NIFTY did not managed to make any further progress and on next sessions or so we have seeing prices trading in a range of 15915-15635 with few bearish sessions with no follow through selling.
Today 08th July 2021 on expiry day we have seen selling all through day without giving any chance to bulls to take over. So, now the question is can we consider today’s session as a sign of trend reversal for swing trader?? Well I will prefer to wait for considering it as a sign of trend reversal.
Okay then why should wait? As mentioned earlier NIFTY is still in a range of 15915-15635 so to consider NIFTY to bearish for swing trade we must see breakdown to the level of 15635. And if one can observe today’s candle we manage to see NIFTY spot penetrate 21EMA on daily chart but did now managed to close below it which is kind of sign that NIFTY is taking Support at EMA.
So, before making any bearish decision for swing trade we must prefer to wait for follow through and breakdown to the level of 15635. And if did not managed to see the same and prices move upside again we have to consider 15915 as a resistance.
After all this it’s looks like for swing or short term trading we must stay NEUTRAL for now .
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