NG: UNG: boil: Natural Gas Looking for a Bottom - Mid December
Natural Gas futures dropped disproportionately to fundamentals on lower national demand in the first half of December and slightly higher recent production.
However, NatGasWeather forecasts for the storage draw covering next three weeks are not as bearish as the drop in gas prices. LNG flows are consistently
bullish exceeding 10.5 bcf/d. The fundamentals are still strong. It seems that bullish traders are waiting for colder weather patterns to settle in before driving
prices higher.
If we get the forecasted warming next week, the prices may go lower. Expected trough at around December 9-12.
Technicals: The 4 Hr chart is oversold. Yet, this condition may persist for another week. The double bottom is more likely before going higher.
Per NatGasWeather Report:
EIA Weekly Nat Gas Storage Report Outlook: EIA Weekly Report
Week 1 – December 10 -70 to -80 Bcf Slightly Larger vs Normal Draw
(Nov 27-Dec 3)
Week 2 – December 17 -80 to -90 Bcf Slightly Smaller vs Normal Draw
(Dec 4-10)
Week 3 – December 23 -85 to -100 Bcf Slightly Smaller vs Normal Draw
(Dec 11-17)
NatGasWeather.com Forecast
5-Year Average -61 Bcf -105 Bcf -127 Bcf
However, NatGasWeather forecasts for the storage draw covering next three weeks are not as bearish as the drop in gas prices. LNG flows are consistently
bullish exceeding 10.5 bcf/d. The fundamentals are still strong. It seems that bullish traders are waiting for colder weather patterns to settle in before driving
prices higher.
If we get the forecasted warming next week, the prices may go lower. Expected trough at around December 9-12.
Technicals: The 4 Hr chart is oversold. Yet, this condition may persist for another week. The double bottom is more likely before going higher.
Per NatGasWeather Report:
EIA Weekly Nat Gas Storage Report Outlook: EIA Weekly Report
Week 1 – December 10 -70 to -80 Bcf Slightly Larger vs Normal Draw
(Nov 27-Dec 3)
Week 2 – December 17 -80 to -90 Bcf Slightly Smaller vs Normal Draw
(Dec 4-10)
Week 3 – December 23 -85 to -100 Bcf Slightly Smaller vs Normal Draw
(Dec 11-17)
NatGasWeather.com Forecast
5-Year Average -61 Bcf -105 Bcf -127 Bcf