MACRO MONDAY 12 - Positive MOVE Index
MACRO MONDAY 12
A Positive MOVE Index -
MOVE
The U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index – the “MOVE” is similar to the VIX volatility index that lets us know when volatility/uncertainty is high or low in the stock market by monitoring options contracts. Instead the MOVE measures how much investors expect bonds prices to fluctuate in the future. The bond market is particularly sensitive to changes in interest rates thus the MOVE also can also advise of expectations of future interest rate volatility.
The MOVE index calculates the implied volatility of U.S. Treasury options using a weighted average of option prices on Treasury futures across multiple maturities (2, 5, 10, and 30 years). It reflects the level of volatility in U.S. Treasury futures.
When the MOVE Index is high, it means investors are worried and expect big price swings, which can be a sign of uncertainty or instability in the financial markets. When it's low, it suggests that investors are more relaxed and don't anticipate significant price movements.
In essence, the MOVE Index helps us gauge how jittery or calm the financial markets are by looking at the expectations of future price changes.
The MOVE Index can help inform us of the following:
1. A potential flight to safety: When the MOVE or Bond Option Market Volatility increases this can be a signal of a flight to safety as people exit riskier assets positions such as stocks and reallocate funds to less riskier government backed assets such as Bonds.
- The chart illustrates that increases in bond volatility
negatively impact the S&P500.
2. Future Interest Rates: By capturing investors’ expectations of potential future fluctuations in interest rates, the index serves as a proxy for the bond market’s overall sentiment regarding future interest rate movements.
- The MOVE can provide insights into the bond
market’s expectations about future interest rate
volatility, thus providing a heads up of upcoming
change to future interest rates.
The importance of the MOVE index lies in its ability to provide insights into the bond market’s expectations about future interest rate volatility and market volatility.
The Chart
With an understanding of the MOVE Index we can now dive into the chart and the implications we can draw from it;
- Above the 85 level is above average bond market
volatility and below the 85 level is below average
bond market volatility.
- Historically when the MOVE Index increases higher
than the 126 level it has resulted in significant
S&P500 price decline (red on chart).
- Conversely when we are below the 126 level this
has corresponded with positive price action for the
S&P500 the majority of the time (green on the
chart). This makes sense as a MOVE below the 126
level would suggest the bond market volatility is
reaching down to the average 85 zone or under
suggesting stable financial markets with moderate
bond & interest rate volatility expected. Under such
circumstances there is certainty and an element of
calm in financial markets allowing for capital to flow
more freely into riskier assets (instead of the safer
bonds).
- When the MOVE Index falls back into the 126 – 100
zone (orange ) this zone has been a zone of
indecision with a potential increase and bounce
back out of the zone higher or a fall lower. I would
consider this a zone a wait to see what happens
next zone.
- At present we appear falling into 100 – 85 level
(green zone). Should we fall below the 85 level this
could be considered a confirmation signal of
stability returning to the bond market which could
lead to a flow of capital to riskier assets such as
those in the S&P500.
In the period from 2007 – 2009 during the Great Financial Crisis bond volatility remained elevated above the 126 level for approx. 23 months (in the red zone on the chart) and this consisted of three peaks in bond volatility that reached a high of 265 on the MOVE Index.
At present we have had 16 months of increased bond volatility reaching in and out of the 126 red zone. Similar to 2007 – 2009 period we have had three peaks in bond volatility however we only reached a high of 173 (in 2007-2009 it was a high of 265).
We are currently moving back down towards the 85 level and this appears to be positive for markets however I would remain cautious until we make a definitive move below the 85 level. We are aware that bond volatility can remain elevated for up to 23 months and we have only been elevated for 16 months and did not reach the highs of 265 like in the 2007 – 2009 period.
The chart does not have to play out the same, reach the same levels or follow a similar time pattern as the 2007 – 2009 period however we are aware that it can move higher and that it can remain elevated for longer therefore we can remain cautious until the volatility moves under the 85 level (below the historical average).
Its hard to ignore that this chart looks bullish for the market as we move down into the green zone and into lower bond market volatility. This creates a stark argument to some of the charts I shared in previous weeks. I would be more comfortable in confirming the bull thesis from this “one” chart should we move below the average 85 level. Furthermore, it is one chart and for me it would not be enough to rely on alone.
I was listening to market guru Raoul Pal this morning and he made an compelling argument to suggest that we are already in the deep trough of a recession and might be about to start climbing out of it. It’s worth considering as recessions are typically declared up to 8 months after they have started and with many countries having already established 2 quarters of negative GDP, we certainly could be in the trough. If there is one chart that would back up Raoul Pals thesis, it is the MOVE Index which is suggesting a move to lower than average bond volatility, suggesting we are potentially beginning to enter a period of stability and certainty which would allow for capital to feel more comfortable flowing towards riskier assets.
This chart will be a great chart to keep an eye on for those with a positive or negative market lens. You can press play on the chart on trading view and it will update and tell you if we are moving into low risk levels or high risk levels, you also have boundaries for the extremes.
This chart and the others I have completed on Macro Mondays are all designed so that you can revisit them at any point and press play and see if we are breaking new into higher or lower risk territory. I hope they all help towards your investing and trading frameworks.
PUKA
A Positive MOVE Index -
MOVE
The U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index – the “MOVE” is similar to the VIX volatility index that lets us know when volatility/uncertainty is high or low in the stock market by monitoring options contracts. Instead the MOVE measures how much investors expect bonds prices to fluctuate in the future. The bond market is particularly sensitive to changes in interest rates thus the MOVE also can also advise of expectations of future interest rate volatility.
The MOVE index calculates the implied volatility of U.S. Treasury options using a weighted average of option prices on Treasury futures across multiple maturities (2, 5, 10, and 30 years). It reflects the level of volatility in U.S. Treasury futures.
When the MOVE Index is high, it means investors are worried and expect big price swings, which can be a sign of uncertainty or instability in the financial markets. When it's low, it suggests that investors are more relaxed and don't anticipate significant price movements.
In essence, the MOVE Index helps us gauge how jittery or calm the financial markets are by looking at the expectations of future price changes.
The MOVE Index can help inform us of the following:
1. A potential flight to safety: When the MOVE or Bond Option Market Volatility increases this can be a signal of a flight to safety as people exit riskier assets positions such as stocks and reallocate funds to less riskier government backed assets such as Bonds.
- The chart illustrates that increases in bond volatility
negatively impact the S&P500.
2. Future Interest Rates: By capturing investors’ expectations of potential future fluctuations in interest rates, the index serves as a proxy for the bond market’s overall sentiment regarding future interest rate movements.
- The MOVE can provide insights into the bond
market’s expectations about future interest rate
volatility, thus providing a heads up of upcoming
change to future interest rates.
The importance of the MOVE index lies in its ability to provide insights into the bond market’s expectations about future interest rate volatility and market volatility.
The Chart
With an understanding of the MOVE Index we can now dive into the chart and the implications we can draw from it;
- Above the 85 level is above average bond market
volatility and below the 85 level is below average
bond market volatility.
- Historically when the MOVE Index increases higher
than the 126 level it has resulted in significant
S&P500 price decline (red on chart).
- Conversely when we are below the 126 level this
has corresponded with positive price action for the
S&P500 the majority of the time (green on the
chart). This makes sense as a MOVE below the 126
level would suggest the bond market volatility is
reaching down to the average 85 zone or under
suggesting stable financial markets with moderate
bond & interest rate volatility expected. Under such
circumstances there is certainty and an element of
calm in financial markets allowing for capital to flow
more freely into riskier assets (instead of the safer
bonds).
- When the MOVE Index falls back into the 126 – 100
zone (orange ) this zone has been a zone of
indecision with a potential increase and bounce
back out of the zone higher or a fall lower. I would
consider this a zone a wait to see what happens
next zone.
- At present we appear falling into 100 – 85 level
(green zone). Should we fall below the 85 level this
could be considered a confirmation signal of
stability returning to the bond market which could
lead to a flow of capital to riskier assets such as
those in the S&P500.
In the period from 2007 – 2009 during the Great Financial Crisis bond volatility remained elevated above the 126 level for approx. 23 months (in the red zone on the chart) and this consisted of three peaks in bond volatility that reached a high of 265 on the MOVE Index.
At present we have had 16 months of increased bond volatility reaching in and out of the 126 red zone. Similar to 2007 – 2009 period we have had three peaks in bond volatility however we only reached a high of 173 (in 2007-2009 it was a high of 265).
We are currently moving back down towards the 85 level and this appears to be positive for markets however I would remain cautious until we make a definitive move below the 85 level. We are aware that bond volatility can remain elevated for up to 23 months and we have only been elevated for 16 months and did not reach the highs of 265 like in the 2007 – 2009 period.
The chart does not have to play out the same, reach the same levels or follow a similar time pattern as the 2007 – 2009 period however we are aware that it can move higher and that it can remain elevated for longer therefore we can remain cautious until the volatility moves under the 85 level (below the historical average).
Its hard to ignore that this chart looks bullish for the market as we move down into the green zone and into lower bond market volatility. This creates a stark argument to some of the charts I shared in previous weeks. I would be more comfortable in confirming the bull thesis from this “one” chart should we move below the average 85 level. Furthermore, it is one chart and for me it would not be enough to rely on alone.
I was listening to market guru Raoul Pal this morning and he made an compelling argument to suggest that we are already in the deep trough of a recession and might be about to start climbing out of it. It’s worth considering as recessions are typically declared up to 8 months after they have started and with many countries having already established 2 quarters of negative GDP, we certainly could be in the trough. If there is one chart that would back up Raoul Pals thesis, it is the MOVE Index which is suggesting a move to lower than average bond volatility, suggesting we are potentially beginning to enter a period of stability and certainty which would allow for capital to feel more comfortable flowing towards riskier assets.
This chart will be a great chart to keep an eye on for those with a positive or negative market lens. You can press play on the chart on trading view and it will update and tell you if we are moving into low risk levels or high risk levels, you also have boundaries for the extremes.
This chart and the others I have completed on Macro Mondays are all designed so that you can revisit them at any point and press play and see if we are breaking new into higher or lower risk territory. I hope they all help towards your investing and trading frameworks.
PUKA
