November 1 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, News
Description:
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
Two-Day Balance, 100% Retracement Level And LVN Below $3,200.
Technical:
Broad-market equity indices ended the week lower with S&P 500 retracing nearly 100% of the rally that began after the September sell-off.
During Last Week’s Action: Alongside a materialization of the Federal Reserve's growth risk factors -- a lack of fiscal support, resurgence of the COVID-19 coronavirus, as well as a tightening of financial conditions -- U.S. index products showed increased confidence in their exploration lower.
Going back, last week started off with a clear break from balance and acceptance below the October 22 excess low, which suggested a change in directional conviction. The selling intensified, after a failed response at the $3,370 high-volume concentration, and continued into Friday’s close, through the $3,330 level, which marked the upper boundary of a low-volume concentration, initially formed by upside directional conviction.
Given Friday’s end-of-day rotation, away from value, the week ended within a two-day balance area, providing a clear trading framework for the week that follows. Therefore, if participants were to initiate and spend time outside of the balance area, then it's likely the market will continue in that particular direction. Otherwise, prices will remain range-bound, favoring short-term, responsive trade.
Fundamental:
Alongside a resurgence of the COVID-19 coronavirus, in a commentary, Bloomberg discussed the notion that the fear of COVID-19 is more impactful on the economy. In support is the following statement by Variant Perception, an independent economic research provider. bloom.bg/34IPHZQ
“As long as policymakers and the media present a more alarmist view of the virus’s impact than can be justified by a dispassionate analysis of the data, recoveries will continue to stutter. On the other hand, an easing of the fear portrayed would likely allow recoveries to accelerate at a much faster rate.”
Continuing, Moody’s Capital Markets Research finds that medical professionals claim a second COVID-19 wave will not exact the same toll on hospitalizations and deaths. bit.ly/34MCj6T
With that, Bloomberg adds that the focus on mandatory lockdowns is overdone since the mere idea of catching the deadly virus invokes voluntary social distancing, which has a greater impact on mobility than the lockdowns. This is validated by IMF data which found that the lifting of the lockdowns generally had a more limited impact than imposing one.
As a result, Variant Perception suggests that negative coverage of COVID-19 be lightened.
Key Events:
Monday: Markit Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, Presidential Election.
Tuesday: Factory Orders.
Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, Balance of Trade, ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity, ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment, ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change.
Thursday: Continuing Jobless Claims, Initial Jobless Claims, Fed Interest Rate Decision, Fed Press Conference.
Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Change, Average Hourly Earnings, Average Weekly Hours, Nonfarm Payrolls Private, Participation Rate, Wholesale Inventories, Consumer Credit Change.
Recent News:
The U.S. faces the biggest week of 2020 with the election, Fed, and jobs report. bloom.bg/3kMR3sf
High-yield spreads are showing a muted response to ultra-high equity volatility. bit.ly/2HKd0Kd
Independent traders doubt new lockdowns in Europe will lead to a further oil rout. bloom.bg/3kQt5vW
BlackRock Inc (NYSE: BLK) will benefit from its 2021 ETF expansion in Brazil. bit.ly/320USmf
Chevron Corp (NYSE: CVX) and Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE: XOM) cut spending. reut.rs/3mDNPrt
Honeywell International Inc (NYSE: HON) profit beats as cost cuts soften sales hit. reut.rs/37XGG12
The October equity market sell-off anticipates a meaningful drop in business sales. bit.ly/3oLgIDM
Tech companies will have to explain how algorithms work under a new EU ruling. reut.rs/2HLdQ9D
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) plans to test its COVID-19 vaccine in ages 12-18. reut.rs/381jiQ4
Cboe Global Markets Inc (BATS: CBOE) tops profit views as retail activity supports. reut.rs/34MkSDG
Under Armour Inc (NYSE: UA) sees demand for sneakers, masks driving revenue. reut.rs/2HXnMfB
Walmart Inc (NYSE: WMT) unit Sam’s Club and DoorDash team on medicine delivery. reut.rs/2TFHhw3
Joe Biden’s clean-energy ‘revolution’ faces challenge to match fossil-fuel jobs, pay. reut.rs/2THdumL
U.S consumer spending beats forecasts; worries over decreasing government money. reut.rs/35ROgYu
Federal Reserve cut loan minimums, easing terms for Main Street Lending Program. reut.rs/34QOD6p
Key Metrics:
Sentiment: 35.3% Bullish, 29.4% Neutral, 35.3% Bearish as of 10/28/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) -78,315,991 as of 10/30/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Neutral) 43.6% as of 10/30/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
Two-Day Balance, 100% Retracement Level And LVN Below $3,200.
Technical:
Broad-market equity indices ended the week lower with S&P 500 retracing nearly 100% of the rally that began after the September sell-off.
During Last Week’s Action: Alongside a materialization of the Federal Reserve's growth risk factors -- a lack of fiscal support, resurgence of the COVID-19 coronavirus, as well as a tightening of financial conditions -- U.S. index products showed increased confidence in their exploration lower.
Going back, last week started off with a clear break from balance and acceptance below the October 22 excess low, which suggested a change in directional conviction. The selling intensified, after a failed response at the $3,370 high-volume concentration, and continued into Friday’s close, through the $3,330 level, which marked the upper boundary of a low-volume concentration, initially formed by upside directional conviction.
Given Friday’s end-of-day rotation, away from value, the week ended within a two-day balance area, providing a clear trading framework for the week that follows. Therefore, if participants were to initiate and spend time outside of the balance area, then it's likely the market will continue in that particular direction. Otherwise, prices will remain range-bound, favoring short-term, responsive trade.
Fundamental:
Alongside a resurgence of the COVID-19 coronavirus, in a commentary, Bloomberg discussed the notion that the fear of COVID-19 is more impactful on the economy. In support is the following statement by Variant Perception, an independent economic research provider. bloom.bg/34IPHZQ
“As long as policymakers and the media present a more alarmist view of the virus’s impact than can be justified by a dispassionate analysis of the data, recoveries will continue to stutter. On the other hand, an easing of the fear portrayed would likely allow recoveries to accelerate at a much faster rate.”
Continuing, Moody’s Capital Markets Research finds that medical professionals claim a second COVID-19 wave will not exact the same toll on hospitalizations and deaths. bit.ly/34MCj6T
With that, Bloomberg adds that the focus on mandatory lockdowns is overdone since the mere idea of catching the deadly virus invokes voluntary social distancing, which has a greater impact on mobility than the lockdowns. This is validated by IMF data which found that the lifting of the lockdowns generally had a more limited impact than imposing one.
As a result, Variant Perception suggests that negative coverage of COVID-19 be lightened.
Key Events:
Monday: Markit Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, Presidential Election.
Tuesday: Factory Orders.
Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, Balance of Trade, ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity, ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment, ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change.
Thursday: Continuing Jobless Claims, Initial Jobless Claims, Fed Interest Rate Decision, Fed Press Conference.
Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Change, Average Hourly Earnings, Average Weekly Hours, Nonfarm Payrolls Private, Participation Rate, Wholesale Inventories, Consumer Credit Change.
Recent News:
The U.S. faces the biggest week of 2020 with the election, Fed, and jobs report. bloom.bg/3kMR3sf
High-yield spreads are showing a muted response to ultra-high equity volatility. bit.ly/2HKd0Kd
Independent traders doubt new lockdowns in Europe will lead to a further oil rout. bloom.bg/3kQt5vW
BlackRock Inc (NYSE: BLK) will benefit from its 2021 ETF expansion in Brazil. bit.ly/320USmf
Chevron Corp (NYSE: CVX) and Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE: XOM) cut spending. reut.rs/3mDNPrt
Honeywell International Inc (NYSE: HON) profit beats as cost cuts soften sales hit. reut.rs/37XGG12
The October equity market sell-off anticipates a meaningful drop in business sales. bit.ly/3oLgIDM
Tech companies will have to explain how algorithms work under a new EU ruling. reut.rs/2HLdQ9D
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) plans to test its COVID-19 vaccine in ages 12-18. reut.rs/381jiQ4
Cboe Global Markets Inc (BATS: CBOE) tops profit views as retail activity supports. reut.rs/34MkSDG
Under Armour Inc (NYSE: UA) sees demand for sneakers, masks driving revenue. reut.rs/2HXnMfB
Walmart Inc (NYSE: WMT) unit Sam’s Club and DoorDash team on medicine delivery. reut.rs/2TFHhw3
Joe Biden’s clean-energy ‘revolution’ faces challenge to match fossil-fuel jobs, pay. reut.rs/2THdumL
U.S consumer spending beats forecasts; worries over decreasing government money. reut.rs/35ROgYu
Federal Reserve cut loan minimums, easing terms for Main Street Lending Program. reut.rs/34QOD6p
Key Metrics:
Sentiment: 35.3% Bullish, 29.4% Neutral, 35.3% Bearish as of 10/28/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) -78,315,991 as of 10/30/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Neutral) 43.6% as of 10/30/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
