#202408 - a weekly priceaction market recap and outlook - oil
Good evening and i hope you are well.
I try to keep it simple stupid (KISS) here with my chart this week.
bull case: bulls created a credible bottom around 70 and the buying pressure is there to get to 80 for the first time since 2023-11-07. There is a measured move target from the first leg i drew to around 82, the upper wedge trend line goes there and the big bear trend line starting from 2022-03 goes into that area as well. Decent enough probabilities if bulls can trade above 80 to also get to 82.
bear case: Bears see it as a trading range and bulls did not have a weekly close above 80 since 2023-11. They want a continuation of the range and sell everything above 78 because it has been working for 4 months now. Their first target is to trade below 77 and then a retest of the daily 20ema at 75. Bears have confidence in their assessment, because the bull legs in this trading range look much weaker than the bear legs.
outlook last week: “sideways (odds favor a small pullback) then up for targets 79-81”
→ Market was at 76.61 and is now at 78.46, so a good outlook since we got a decent dip to 75.6 before a big rally to 78.46
short term: sideways to up - invalid below 75
medium-long term: sideways inside the big triangle, above 80 odds favor bulls to get to the upper bear trend line around 82-84
I try to keep it simple stupid (KISS) here with my chart this week.
bull case: bulls created a credible bottom around 70 and the buying pressure is there to get to 80 for the first time since 2023-11-07. There is a measured move target from the first leg i drew to around 82, the upper wedge trend line goes there and the big bear trend line starting from 2022-03 goes into that area as well. Decent enough probabilities if bulls can trade above 80 to also get to 82.
bear case: Bears see it as a trading range and bulls did not have a weekly close above 80 since 2023-11. They want a continuation of the range and sell everything above 78 because it has been working for 4 months now. Their first target is to trade below 77 and then a retest of the daily 20ema at 75. Bears have confidence in their assessment, because the bull legs in this trading range look much weaker than the bear legs.
outlook last week: “sideways (odds favor a small pullback) then up for targets 79-81”
→ Market was at 76.61 and is now at 78.46, so a good outlook since we got a decent dip to 75.6 before a big rally to 78.46
short term: sideways to up - invalid below 75
medium-long term: sideways inside the big triangle, above 80 odds favor bulls to get to the upper bear trend line around 82-84
