a weekly price action market recap and outlook - oil
wti crude oil
The chart and my drawn wave outlook is the low probability thesis. More probable is a continuation of the trading range 68-78 or 70-80, whatever price you find more appealing, same outcome.
bull case: Bulls still prevented bears from a strong move down, as they had the last months, after a rally and we are still trading above the daily 20ema. We formed a trading range after the bull spike and i adjusted the lower wedge trend line which could hold but for that, bulls need to start the week strong and have immediate follow through. They still want to trade to 80 and touch the upper bear trend line which has started 2022-03.
bear case: Bears see a good looking bear bar from Friday and want follow through selling on Monday to get back below the daily 20ema. If they can break the ema and the bull wedge trend line, they have a good chance of a reversal back down to 70.
outlook last week: “sideways to up - invalid below 75”
→ Last Sunday we traded 78.46 and now we are at 76.49. the week was mostly sideways. if bears can push below 75 i say i was wrong but so far oil is above the important support prices
short term: slight favor for the bulls to reverse Friday and trade above 79, there could still be resistance if bulls won’t push above with some force. bears win below 75 for at least 74 or lower
medium-long term: same as last weeks. sideways inside the big triangle, above 80 odds favor bulls to get to the upper bear trend line around 82-84
The chart and my drawn wave outlook is the low probability thesis. More probable is a continuation of the trading range 68-78 or 70-80, whatever price you find more appealing, same outcome.
bull case: Bulls still prevented bears from a strong move down, as they had the last months, after a rally and we are still trading above the daily 20ema. We formed a trading range after the bull spike and i adjusted the lower wedge trend line which could hold but for that, bulls need to start the week strong and have immediate follow through. They still want to trade to 80 and touch the upper bear trend line which has started 2022-03.
bear case: Bears see a good looking bear bar from Friday and want follow through selling on Monday to get back below the daily 20ema. If they can break the ema and the bull wedge trend line, they have a good chance of a reversal back down to 70.
outlook last week: “sideways to up - invalid below 75”
→ Last Sunday we traded 78.46 and now we are at 76.49. the week was mostly sideways. if bears can push below 75 i say i was wrong but so far oil is above the important support prices
short term: slight favor for the bulls to reverse Friday and trade above 79, there could still be resistance if bulls won’t push above with some force. bears win below 75 for at least 74 or lower
medium-long term: same as last weeks. sideways inside the big triangle, above 80 odds favor bulls to get to the upper bear trend line around 82-84
