Assumptions:
- Taking into account the last 20 year of history
- Vertical line at the point where a recession start (SPX500 start to retrace) and M2SL make new low
- The last 3 cycles last almost the same (6-7 years)
Analysis:
- The trend of M2SL/SPX500 inversely proportional to the price of SPX
- M2SL/SPX500 approach a big resistance
- In the last cycles M2SL have a steady growth but in this last one we have a lot of liquidity, up-trend of interest rate. This could imply a fall of SPX
- Taking into account the last 20 year of history
- Vertical line at the point where a recession start (SPX500 start to retrace) and M2SL make new low
- The last 3 cycles last almost the same (6-7 years)
Analysis:
- The trend of M2SL/SPX500 inversely proportional to the price of SPX
- M2SL/SPX500 approach a big resistance
- In the last cycles M2SL have a steady growth but in this last one we have a lot of liquidity, up-trend of interest rate. This could imply a fall of SPX