fmkatz

Don't just look at M2, look at M2 relative to the Velocity of M2

Looking at M2 it looks incredibly Inflationary but where exactly is that Inflation? So I had to dig deeper, if you look at M2V, the Velocity of M2 or in easier terms, the number of times that the average unit of currency is used to purchase goods and services within a given time period, you will notice a sharp decline in M2V accelerated by the pandemic crisis. Now if you look at the amount of M2 you have to consider for it to be inflationary, it also has to have a high velocity, or productiveness inside the economy. So if you now look at M2*M2V, the amount of M2 multiplied with it's velocity, the chart on the left, you see that relative to it's velocity M2 by far has not increased as dramatically as it seems if you just look at the amount. So if the amount of liquidity in the system increases but the realitve productivity of that money goes down it most likely is not as inflationary as you might think by only seeing the increased amount of liquidity. The crucial thing to watch is now if the increased amount of liquidity will increase in velocity which then very well can lead to a much higher inflation in cosumer goods. But keep in mind that there is a good chance a lot of the realitvely inactive money might has been inactive because it has positioned in equities and commodities, so if the economy now reopens some of that investments might be liquidated to consume rather than staying invested in financial assets, that not only concernes households but also small and medium businesses. So it is mostly crucial to keep a close eye on the M2V to see if actual consumer good inflation is to come or if this amount of liquidity will just keep raising the market to even more all time highs. This also coincides with yields which eventually can be very harmful for governments in huge debt, and as the fed has to rely on private banks to buy treasuries, which won't do that in the current extent, if real inflation is on the horizon, soly because they would loose a lot of money holding most liquid assets like treasuries or reserves, the fed won't be able to continue buying so much of the government debt causing the government to find someone else to buy it or to force public savings institutions into buying it by else going bankrupt out of inability to service it's debt.
Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.