HI everyone! I think everyone is waiting eagerly for an altseason expecting some altcoins to start running! Me too! Today I will continue to update on my view on chainlink!
I wish I could bring you some good news about chainlink to say $25 is in hand soon, but sadly the chart is temporarily not showing that to us yet. Recently we saw a capitulation on chainlink that took place in sending $Link down from $12.84 to $8.05 within hours on Xmas eve. So what can we expect further from this move now?
To me, this looks like a corrective A wave move in Elliot Wave Theory, an always fiercesome downward movement. So if this is really A wave move, likely next 2 moves will be a B wave upward bounce and a further C wave downward move to complete the whole ABC corrective move. I have labeled on the chart the A wave and then followed by a B wave bounce. Look at the B wave bounce, it consists of 3 smaller sub-waves of abc which I have labelled them with green line abc. 3 sub-waves movement speak of a temporary corrective move within the ABC movement. In other words, we could likely expect the next C move to further drive $Link down in days or weeks ahead. So how far can the C wave drive us down? C wave can be as long as A wave which would probably drive us down to $6.83 level or a Fibonacci extension of 161.8% of A wave length which then could send us down to around $3 or lower.
I have 3 other reasons to support a higher probability of downward movement for now. First, look at the red circle, the B wave bounce that happened recently that send $Link back up to $13.25 has failed to climb back into the symmetrical triangle formed since August 2020 causing a failure in retest. Secondly, we are seeing weakness in its movement, it has constantly travelled below hourly moving averages for some times. It has not been travelling above moving averages lines with huge separation for long, and therefore this is also a sign of weakness. Third, due to the LINK/BTC pairing, with BTC being very overbought and very much due for huge pullback correction now to around $20,000, I think a BTC pullback will likely put huge downward pressure on $Link. If BTC were to make a correction of 30% to 40% (which is normal in BTC pullback history), it will probably drive Link down by a minimum of 60% to 80% downward.
With all these 3 reasons, I believe we could be seeing bloodbath in $Link soon. Remember to set stop loss, preferably at around $10. Below $10, we could see $8 again or further lower to $3. Good news is we can buy cheaper $Link later on! If you have any questions, please feel free to drop it at the comment section below!
Thank you and wishing all of you a happy new year 2021! God bless!
I wish I could bring you some good news about chainlink to say $25 is in hand soon, but sadly the chart is temporarily not showing that to us yet. Recently we saw a capitulation on chainlink that took place in sending $Link down from $12.84 to $8.05 within hours on Xmas eve. So what can we expect further from this move now?
To me, this looks like a corrective A wave move in Elliot Wave Theory, an always fiercesome downward movement. So if this is really A wave move, likely next 2 moves will be a B wave upward bounce and a further C wave downward move to complete the whole ABC corrective move. I have labeled on the chart the A wave and then followed by a B wave bounce. Look at the B wave bounce, it consists of 3 smaller sub-waves of abc which I have labelled them with green line abc. 3 sub-waves movement speak of a temporary corrective move within the ABC movement. In other words, we could likely expect the next C move to further drive $Link down in days or weeks ahead. So how far can the C wave drive us down? C wave can be as long as A wave which would probably drive us down to $6.83 level or a Fibonacci extension of 161.8% of A wave length which then could send us down to around $3 or lower.
I have 3 other reasons to support a higher probability of downward movement for now. First, look at the red circle, the B wave bounce that happened recently that send $Link back up to $13.25 has failed to climb back into the symmetrical triangle formed since August 2020 causing a failure in retest. Secondly, we are seeing weakness in its movement, it has constantly travelled below hourly moving averages for some times. It has not been travelling above moving averages lines with huge separation for long, and therefore this is also a sign of weakness. Third, due to the LINK/BTC pairing, with BTC being very overbought and very much due for huge pullback correction now to around $20,000, I think a BTC pullback will likely put huge downward pressure on $Link. If BTC were to make a correction of 30% to 40% (which is normal in BTC pullback history), it will probably drive Link down by a minimum of 60% to 80% downward.
With all these 3 reasons, I believe we could be seeing bloodbath in $Link soon. Remember to set stop loss, preferably at around $10. Below $10, we could see $8 again or further lower to $3. Good news is we can buy cheaper $Link later on! If you have any questions, please feel free to drop it at the comment section below!
Thank you and wishing all of you a happy new year 2021! God bless!
Comment:
Please refer to my latest idea here,
