LINK rejection for now but not forever! Breakout around Aug/Sept
I haven’t updated this chart at all since the last time I provided TA on it many months ago. I have been focused on automated trading over the last few months and in fact we should be announcing integration of our order book and order flow data @ vcdepth.io into a major automated trading platform in the near future.
Since establishing the first ATH at the end of June 2019, LINK has since failed to break this resistance in any meaningful way despite 4 solid attempts to do so since the beginning of this year. While we did put in a new ATH twice in 2020, it was barely higher than the last and was quickly rejected below the trendline.
I called out a potential wedge here so long ago, its interesting to see it potentially play out as anticipated. In the event that this does continue to form a wedge/pennant here, it has a higher probability of playing out like this >
-We pull back to $3.90 from here with perhaps a brief surge lower to the $3.70 area early to mid-July.
-After this we have enough room to come up and test the ATH resistance 2 more times
--Using a similar wave length as currently established, next test of the ATH around late July early August.
--A second test of the ATH in late August, early September. Good chance to break out here.
--If we break downward instead, likely to be mid September, unlikely to go below $2.40 and absolute hard support @ $1.50
***** One of the most important indicators for trading “alt-coins” is BTC price action! It is imperative that you consider BTC TA/price movement in conjunction to your alt-asset TA. Currently BTC is at a major crossroads where as we had broken down below the ascending 5 year bull trendline with the covid crash and has since come back up only to be rejected. The problem is that about a week or so ago our 5 year bull trendline intersected with a 3 year bear trendline. The 3 year bear seems to be holding resistance and preventing us from reclaiming the bull trendline. This could change but it needs to do so soon. Right now the pull back potential for BTC seems high and the pullback possibly as significant as the initial covid pullback. A large pullback in BTC will almost certainly have a notable impact on LINK, keep your eye on it.
There is a chance LINK could break upwards at any time if the government stimulus continues to flow into the global equities markets. We have seen more correlation between crypto and traditional equities recently which to me means we probably have more institutional investors in crypto now. If the global stock markets crash and Crypto has not, be vigilant, there is a high probability it is coming given recent correlation.
I am still bullish on Chainlink and think its a fantastic project. Recently the Chinese state Blockchain has incorporated ChainLink and there has been a steady flow of collaborators throughout their growth. The concept is great, it brings something new to blockchain and really harnesses the power of Ethereum smart contracts. I myself had started writing a white paper on something called the Collaborative Blockchain Platform (CBP) in late 2017 but with the shortage of blockchain devs I didn’t have the funding to pursue it. Within a couple of months, I saw ChainLink announce their solution and it being similar to the CBP, I immediately saw the value in what they were doing. I have been an early holder and repeat trader of LINK. Its easy not to ever sell for a loss when you have faith in the asset you are trading.
This write up expresses some of my personal assessments while analyzing the data provided. The data in this write up are my personal opinion and do not represent trading advice. As always, DYOR and use multiple sources. Also please consider tracking crypto order book and order flow data like no one else does @ vcdepth.io – We also have the first modular, user customizable API solution and for way less than our competition.
Since establishing the first ATH at the end of June 2019, LINK has since failed to break this resistance in any meaningful way despite 4 solid attempts to do so since the beginning of this year. While we did put in a new ATH twice in 2020, it was barely higher than the last and was quickly rejected below the trendline.
I called out a potential wedge here so long ago, its interesting to see it potentially play out as anticipated. In the event that this does continue to form a wedge/pennant here, it has a higher probability of playing out like this >
-We pull back to $3.90 from here with perhaps a brief surge lower to the $3.70 area early to mid-July.
-After this we have enough room to come up and test the ATH resistance 2 more times
--Using a similar wave length as currently established, next test of the ATH around late July early August.
--A second test of the ATH in late August, early September. Good chance to break out here.
--If we break downward instead, likely to be mid September, unlikely to go below $2.40 and absolute hard support @ $1.50
***** One of the most important indicators for trading “alt-coins” is BTC price action! It is imperative that you consider BTC TA/price movement in conjunction to your alt-asset TA. Currently BTC is at a major crossroads where as we had broken down below the ascending 5 year bull trendline with the covid crash and has since come back up only to be rejected. The problem is that about a week or so ago our 5 year bull trendline intersected with a 3 year bear trendline. The 3 year bear seems to be holding resistance and preventing us from reclaiming the bull trendline. This could change but it needs to do so soon. Right now the pull back potential for BTC seems high and the pullback possibly as significant as the initial covid pullback. A large pullback in BTC will almost certainly have a notable impact on LINK, keep your eye on it.
There is a chance LINK could break upwards at any time if the government stimulus continues to flow into the global equities markets. We have seen more correlation between crypto and traditional equities recently which to me means we probably have more institutional investors in crypto now. If the global stock markets crash and Crypto has not, be vigilant, there is a high probability it is coming given recent correlation.
I am still bullish on Chainlink and think its a fantastic project. Recently the Chinese state Blockchain has incorporated ChainLink and there has been a steady flow of collaborators throughout their growth. The concept is great, it brings something new to blockchain and really harnesses the power of Ethereum smart contracts. I myself had started writing a white paper on something called the Collaborative Blockchain Platform (CBP) in late 2017 but with the shortage of blockchain devs I didn’t have the funding to pursue it. Within a couple of months, I saw ChainLink announce their solution and it being similar to the CBP, I immediately saw the value in what they were doing. I have been an early holder and repeat trader of LINK. Its easy not to ever sell for a loss when you have faith in the asset you are trading.
This write up expresses some of my personal assessments while analyzing the data provided. The data in this write up are my personal opinion and do not represent trading advice. As always, DYOR and use multiple sources. Also please consider tracking crypto order book and order flow data like no one else does @ vcdepth.io – We also have the first modular, user customizable API solution and for way less than our competition.