Still see a greater than 60% chance that Link falls to $26
Technical Analysis
Summary
LINK and BTC are currently consolidating above thier previous horizontal resistance. A strong bull run is going to take considerably more momentum to be sustainable, although I believe it will be initiated within a few weeks. TLDR: I am waiting for a close above the 20 day moving average (MA) to enter a new smaller position or fall to the 50d MA to enter a small position, and will make a large entry near the 100d MA, or after multiple closes above the 20d MA.
MA
LINK has still not meet my entry conditions of closing above the 20d MA, it has crossed it yesterday and today but was pushed back at the buzzer today. If LINK close above the 20d MA I will enter a new position. As mentioned in my previous post, upward breakouts from decending triangles have a greater than 60% chance of taking a strong U-Turn the downside. The good news is the 50d MA has moved up considerably in the last 2 days to just above $26 which is another place I will make smaller entry, my ideal next entry is still $19-21 near the greatest support and 100d MA, unless LINK proves this breakout has actually teeth and has multiple closes above the 20d MA. Currently it would seem that LINK and BTC are consolidating as they wait for the moving averages to play catch up, which is a relatively bullish sign, as they moves up and down they aren't creating hyperbolic movements in price.
MACD
The daily MACD crossover is still in the works, but if the price keeps rising as volume falls it will happen in a few days, barring another strong pull back.
The RSI is still setting higher highs and lows on the daily, which is also bullish especially on lower volume.
Fundemental Analysis
The big 3 indexes in the US had a rough day especially the NASDAQ (QQQ). This is bearish for crypto in general because investors in the Q's are more likely to be invested in the crypto market space as well, more importantly it signals that people are wary of growth stocks and by extension may be wary of growth assests like crypto. The looming threat of rising US Treasury bond yields also has big money fleeing for to the relative safety of bonds which does dry up liquidity in all markets. Watch to see if Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks on this tomorrow, if he does I expect him to artfully evade the question, while leaving you to believe everything is all good. Whales are still dumping large sums of BTC onto the market, which is a serious drag on any bull run. On the bullish front Citi Bank states its belief that Chainlink may take prominence over Bitcoin. Personally I think that may take a long while, but I can see why banks would see more utility in LINK over BTC. Institutional investors, banks, and companies, have been buying the dips on BTC, this means big dumps will become harder to achieve as evidenced by the recent dump; which in the past would have carried on to 50%+.
Tinfoil Hat Time
I watch markets and equities nearly 18 hours a day so I am one crazy, and two pretty good at seeing patterns. Right now I smell a bear trap brewing of epic proportion. Aside from black swan events markets don't crash when everyone is scared, which is where we are currently. They crash when everyone is at maximum exuberance which is why I knew we would have a crash a couple weeks ago, and is why I think big money is buying up everything retail is throwing away in the stock market and cryptospace. I stick to my rules for entry, because I refuse to give someone else my wins, and when I am wrong I hold til I am right. If you have the stomach for risk now is the time to watch for reversals to the upside in crypto and stocks. Don't try to catch a falling knife but don't be scared either.
Summary
LINK and BTC are currently consolidating above thier previous horizontal resistance. A strong bull run is going to take considerably more momentum to be sustainable, although I believe it will be initiated within a few weeks. TLDR: I am waiting for a close above the 20 day moving average (MA) to enter a new smaller position or fall to the 50d MA to enter a small position, and will make a large entry near the 100d MA, or after multiple closes above the 20d MA.
MA
LINK has still not meet my entry conditions of closing above the 20d MA, it has crossed it yesterday and today but was pushed back at the buzzer today. If LINK close above the 20d MA I will enter a new position. As mentioned in my previous post, upward breakouts from decending triangles have a greater than 60% chance of taking a strong U-Turn the downside. The good news is the 50d MA has moved up considerably in the last 2 days to just above $26 which is another place I will make smaller entry, my ideal next entry is still $19-21 near the greatest support and 100d MA, unless LINK proves this breakout has actually teeth and has multiple closes above the 20d MA. Currently it would seem that LINK and BTC are consolidating as they wait for the moving averages to play catch up, which is a relatively bullish sign, as they moves up and down they aren't creating hyperbolic movements in price.
MACD
The daily MACD crossover is still in the works, but if the price keeps rising as volume falls it will happen in a few days, barring another strong pull back.
The RSI is still setting higher highs and lows on the daily, which is also bullish especially on lower volume.
Fundemental Analysis
The big 3 indexes in the US had a rough day especially the NASDAQ (QQQ). This is bearish for crypto in general because investors in the Q's are more likely to be invested in the crypto market space as well, more importantly it signals that people are wary of growth stocks and by extension may be wary of growth assests like crypto. The looming threat of rising US Treasury bond yields also has big money fleeing for to the relative safety of bonds which does dry up liquidity in all markets. Watch to see if Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks on this tomorrow, if he does I expect him to artfully evade the question, while leaving you to believe everything is all good. Whales are still dumping large sums of BTC onto the market, which is a serious drag on any bull run. On the bullish front Citi Bank states its belief that Chainlink may take prominence over Bitcoin. Personally I think that may take a long while, but I can see why banks would see more utility in LINK over BTC. Institutional investors, banks, and companies, have been buying the dips on BTC, this means big dumps will become harder to achieve as evidenced by the recent dump; which in the past would have carried on to 50%+.
Tinfoil Hat Time
I watch markets and equities nearly 18 hours a day so I am one crazy, and two pretty good at seeing patterns. Right now I smell a bear trap brewing of epic proportion. Aside from black swan events markets don't crash when everyone is scared, which is where we are currently. They crash when everyone is at maximum exuberance which is why I knew we would have a crash a couple weeks ago, and is why I think big money is buying up everything retail is throwing away in the stock market and cryptospace. I stick to my rules for entry, because I refuse to give someone else my wins, and when I am wrong I hold til I am right. If you have the stomach for risk now is the time to watch for reversals to the upside in crypto and stocks. Don't try to catch a falling knife but don't be scared either.
