MACRO Real Estate: Does this look familiar?
Should I short the US real estate market?
IYR
DRV
I've been watching
IYR
for some time and I can't help but see similarities to the build-up in the housing market crash of 2008. It's mostly just technical analysis, but you can see 3 moves down to about -30% with a weak wedging formation/upsidedown cup & handle. The entire moves also took place around 85 bars or 600 days. So proportionally the moves are almost identical in time and distance traveled.
The chart just seems very weak to me. It took 280 days to travel down 35%, but only recovered 5% of that in the following 300 days --- this is still a downtrend.
Additionally if you incorporate the story: home prices had record gains in the years after the pandemic, commercial real estate fighting vacancies, Airbnb oversaturation, and all followed by the fastest interest rate increases in FED history....... you might have a good environment for a crash.
IDK these are just thoughts, but this is the week after Chinese Real estate company Evergrande declared bankruptcy and I just feel the chart telling a story. Who knows, maybe history repeats itself.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/PLiy7STi/
IYR
/Users/seanryan/Desktop/Screen Shot 2023-08-21 at 12.54.34 PM.png
IYR
DRV
I've been watching
IYR
for some time and I can't help but see similarities to the build-up in the housing market crash of 2008. It's mostly just technical analysis, but you can see 3 moves down to about -30% with a weak wedging formation/upsidedown cup & handle. The entire moves also took place around 85 bars or 600 days. So proportionally the moves are almost identical in time and distance traveled. The chart just seems very weak to me. It took 280 days to travel down 35%, but only recovered 5% of that in the following 300 days --- this is still a downtrend.
Additionally if you incorporate the story: home prices had record gains in the years after the pandemic, commercial real estate fighting vacancies, Airbnb oversaturation, and all followed by the fastest interest rate increases in FED history....... you might have a good environment for a crash.
IDK these are just thoughts, but this is the week after Chinese Real estate company Evergrande declared bankruptcy and I just feel the chart telling a story. Who knows, maybe history repeats itself.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/PLiy7STi/
IYR
/Users/seanryan/Desktop/Screen Shot 2023-08-21 at 12.54.34 PM.png