danwagnerco

IMVT is a long swing trade opportunity

Long
NASDAQ:IMVT   Immunovant, Inc.
Immunovant Inc offers at least 75% upside in the $16 range as of March 24, 2021.

Weaknesses
  • Stumble in most recent trial for treatment of autoimmune disorder Thyroid Eye Disease (Graves' Ophthalmopathy)
  • General and administrative expenses nearly doubled from $6.10M to $10.50M from Q42019 to Q42020*
  • Net loss of $79.30M for the 9 months ending December 21, 2020, which has nearly doubled compared to the same period in 2019*
  • Obviously fails the "ok boomer" test (see above) and does not pay a dividend

Strengths
  • Thyroid Eye Disease affects approximately 16 out of every 100K women yearly in North America and Europe, meaning nearly 27K new cases per year in the US alone
  • Research & Development spend increased by 4X from $5.00M to $21.10M in Q42019 to Q42020 as they expand manufacturing to support clinical trials*
  • Price tumbled almost 45% when Credit Suisse downgraded their IMVT rating from "outperform" to "neutral" and cutting their price target down from $49 to $31 on February 2, 2021
  • Price hammering continued through the February sell-off to vastly undervalued <$20 range

*All financials sourced from Immunovant's December 31, 2020 results published February 16, 2021.

TipRank
  • 10 Analysts covering Immunovant including the Credit Suisse Analyst who has further knocked the target price down to $28
  • Median price target is $38

Chart
  • Price fell far beneath the 200-Day SMA on February 2, 2021 as part of the paused trial
  • 5-Day EMA crossed the 20-Day SMA up on March 15, 2021 and has found support in the $15-$16 range
  • RSI trending <40 since the cross described above

Summary
Even using the Credit Suisse target of $28, Immunovant Inc has 75% upside based on the current price in the $15-$16 range (and the median $38 price target offers even more potential). IMVT is a swing buy opportunity with conservative initial price target of $28.
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