MARKET AWAITING PCE DATA AFTER VERY POSITIVE LABOR DATA!!!
I. SPDR Fund: Sold 2.31 trillion on June 29th.
II. Macro-level, economic news, intermarket connections:
According to CME: On June 29th, 20.6% predicted unchanged interest rates and 79.4% predicted a 0.25% increase in the July meeting.
On June 30th, 13.2% predicted unchanged interest rates and 86.8% predicted a 0.25% increase in the July meeting.
Bond Market: Money outflow.
Junk bonds: Slight decrease.
High-yield long-term government bonds: Sharp decrease.
Equity Market: Small-cap stocks drive the market.
SPX: Slight decrease.
DJ: Slight decrease.
NASDAQ: Slight decrease.
RUSELL: Strong increase.
Government bond yields:
2-year maturity: Sharp increase.
10-year maturity: Sharp increase.
Yield Curve: Improved spread, improved slope.
Fed's Powell: It will take a long time to bring inflation to 2%.
Most of the FOMC expects two or more interest rate hikes by the end of the year.
Q1 GDP revised for the third time: 2%.
Initial jobless claims decreased to 239K from 265K.
Continuing jobless claims decreased to 1,742K from 1,761K.
Pending home sales decreased to -2.7% from -0.4%.
II. Economic indicator news:
Friday:
8:30 AM: Manufacturing PMI, Service PMI, and Composite PMI (China).
1:00 PM: Q1 GDP revision (UK).
1:30 PM: Retail Sales (Switzerland).
4:00 PM: EU CPI and Core CPI, Unemployment Rate.
7:30 PM: PCE and Core PCE, Personal Income and Spending.
8:35 PM: Chicago PMI.
9:00 PM: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
III. Technical analysis:
INDEX : Increased by 47 pips, with a bullish candle of 70%.
Gold: Doji candle around the reference point.
Sentiment Index: Risk-on sentiment at the end of the session.
FXbook's ratio: Short 42%, Long 58%.
Oil: Increased.
IV. Analysis and strategy:
Analysis:
Powell continues to maintain a hawkish stance and reiterates the possibility of two interest rate hikes this year.
The most important and preferred indicator to watch this week is the PCE, which also impacts the Federal Reserve's policy decisions.
Strategy:
Sell Gold at 1910-1913.
Stop Loss (SL) at 1920-1922.
Take Profit (TP) at 1903-1900-1897-1894.
It is not recommended to trade during strong news releases and important economic indicators.
Trading always carries risks, and the information provided is for reference purposes only. Traders should take responsibility for their own trading decisions.
Wishing you successful trading!
LONGE TRADER
I. SPDR Fund: Sold 2.31 trillion on June 29th.
II. Macro-level, economic news, intermarket connections:
According to CME: On June 29th, 20.6% predicted unchanged interest rates and 79.4% predicted a 0.25% increase in the July meeting.
On June 30th, 13.2% predicted unchanged interest rates and 86.8% predicted a 0.25% increase in the July meeting.
Bond Market: Money outflow.
Junk bonds: Slight decrease.
High-yield long-term government bonds: Sharp decrease.
Equity Market: Small-cap stocks drive the market.
SPX: Slight decrease.
DJ: Slight decrease.
NASDAQ: Slight decrease.
RUSELL: Strong increase.
Government bond yields:
2-year maturity: Sharp increase.
10-year maturity: Sharp increase.
Yield Curve: Improved spread, improved slope.
Fed's Powell: It will take a long time to bring inflation to 2%.
Most of the FOMC expects two or more interest rate hikes by the end of the year.
Q1 GDP revised for the third time: 2%.
Initial jobless claims decreased to 239K from 265K.
Continuing jobless claims decreased to 1,742K from 1,761K.
Pending home sales decreased to -2.7% from -0.4%.
II. Economic indicator news:
Friday:
8:30 AM: Manufacturing PMI, Service PMI, and Composite PMI (China).
1:00 PM: Q1 GDP revision (UK).
1:30 PM: Retail Sales (Switzerland).
4:00 PM: EU CPI and Core CPI, Unemployment Rate.
7:30 PM: PCE and Core PCE, Personal Income and Spending.
8:35 PM: Chicago PMI.
9:00 PM: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
III. Technical analysis:
INDEX : Increased by 47 pips, with a bullish candle of 70%.
Gold: Doji candle around the reference point.
Sentiment Index: Risk-on sentiment at the end of the session.
FXbook's ratio: Short 42%, Long 58%.
Oil: Increased.
IV. Analysis and strategy:
Analysis:
Powell continues to maintain a hawkish stance and reiterates the possibility of two interest rate hikes this year.
The most important and preferred indicator to watch this week is the PCE, which also impacts the Federal Reserve's policy decisions.
Strategy:
Sell Gold at 1910-1913.
Stop Loss (SL) at 1920-1922.
Take Profit (TP) at 1903-1900-1897-1894.
It is not recommended to trade during strong news releases and important economic indicators.
Trading always carries risks, and the information provided is for reference purposes only. Traders should take responsibility for their own trading decisions.
Wishing you successful trading!
LONGE TRADER