Do you see how well those Gann fans squared work? -- Gold consolidates at the Gann confluence and either flags to resume is present path along its Gann ray, or it puts in a reversal at the Gann confluence (the crisscrosses of the fan lines). It most often resumes its path along the fan rays.
I currently have two possible paths for gold.
The first possibility is a fallback from the current level to around 1951.5 on 8/23/23 (downward sloping red arrow). From there. I could see an upward resumption to 2035.5 by 12/26/23. I have two questions about this scenario:
1) Will gold this year follow its historical seasonal tendencies? I'm speaking of gold in US dollars. If gold follows its historical seasonality, it should sell off during the summer months. Historically (from 2004 to 2022) the percentage gold has closed higher each month is as follows: May (47%), June (42%), July (63%), August (63%), Sept (42%). The fourth quarter has historically been bullish for gold. Given this pattern, we would see a selloff around May and June.
2) Is there anything "normal" about this year? We have escalating financial banking stress, potential budget standoffs, geopolitical tensions, and geopolitical forex coalitions being formed. None of these augment well for stability.
The second possibility, shown by the upward sloping arrow, is that given current macro tensions, gold will continue its current path and reach 2237 by 12/26/23, and 2407 by 4/29/24. This scenario makes the most sense, from a macro event perspective, as well as the "geometric construct" of the chart -- the current trend should continue to follow along the current ray, which is also aligned to the purple colored Gartley 1.618 extension (which ends at 2407) which is drawn from a starting point of September 2018 (which coincidentally, happens to be the last belt tightening period of the FED).
The current point & figure objective is 2596 and is taken from the stockcharts.com P&F chart using a three box construct and based on ATR 14 (you should always use ATR on a P&F chart for commodities like gold).
I am in the camp for the second scenario, I believe gold should be around 2237 by year end and around 2407-2596 by April of 2024.
I currently have two possible paths for gold.
The first possibility is a fallback from the current level to around 1951.5 on 8/23/23 (downward sloping red arrow). From there. I could see an upward resumption to 2035.5 by 12/26/23. I have two questions about this scenario:
1) Will gold this year follow its historical seasonal tendencies? I'm speaking of gold in US dollars. If gold follows its historical seasonality, it should sell off during the summer months. Historically (from 2004 to 2022) the percentage gold has closed higher each month is as follows: May (47%), June (42%), July (63%), August (63%), Sept (42%). The fourth quarter has historically been bullish for gold. Given this pattern, we would see a selloff around May and June.
2) Is there anything "normal" about this year? We have escalating financial banking stress, potential budget standoffs, geopolitical tensions, and geopolitical forex coalitions being formed. None of these augment well for stability.
The second possibility, shown by the upward sloping arrow, is that given current macro tensions, gold will continue its current path and reach 2237 by 12/26/23, and 2407 by 4/29/24. This scenario makes the most sense, from a macro event perspective, as well as the "geometric construct" of the chart -- the current trend should continue to follow along the current ray, which is also aligned to the purple colored Gartley 1.618 extension (which ends at 2407) which is drawn from a starting point of September 2018 (which coincidentally, happens to be the last belt tightening period of the FED).
The current point & figure objective is 2596 and is taken from the stockcharts.com P&F chart using a three box construct and based on ATR 14 (you should always use ATR on a P&F chart for commodities like gold).
I am in the camp for the second scenario, I believe gold should be around 2237 by year end and around 2407-2596 by April of 2024.