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Looking at the macro, we can see the GBP has been in a bear market against the USD since 2008, and then after Brexit it felt even more pain.
So what happens next?
The UK is currently applying a lot of fiscal and monetary stimulus to the economy, and negative interests rate could be on the way.
This is a bearish signal for the GBP.
You may say well the US is printing even more and they too are signaling negative rates, surely the GBP can move higher?
Yes it can, but there is more demand for the USD as it's used to buy oil and it's the currency businesses pay suppliers globally. There is very little reason for anyone wanting to hold GBP unless you live there,
The long-term forecast is bearish for the GBP, unless it receives some good news.
RSI is also showing lack of momentum of buyers for the GBP.
I provide long-term macro technical analysis combined with industry sentiment to understand charting better. Please give me a follow and look at my other monthly ideas for Gold, Bitcoin S&P500, Curde Oil and GDX.
So what happens next?
The UK is currently applying a lot of fiscal and monetary stimulus to the economy, and negative interests rate could be on the way.
This is a bearish signal for the GBP.
You may say well the US is printing even more and they too are signaling negative rates, surely the GBP can move higher?
Yes it can, but there is more demand for the USD as it's used to buy oil and it's the currency businesses pay suppliers globally. There is very little reason for anyone wanting to hold GBP unless you live there,
The long-term forecast is bearish for the GBP, unless it receives some good news.
RSI is also showing lack of momentum of buyers for the GBP.
I provide long-term macro technical analysis combined with industry sentiment to understand charting better. Please give me a follow and look at my other monthly ideas for Gold, Bitcoin S&P500, Curde Oil and GDX.