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The anticipation for a rate cut by the Fed has resurfaced as retail sales in the US significantly undershot expectations. However, the UK's real GDP for the fourth quarter showed a 0.3% decline compared to the previous quarter, falling short of both expectations and the previous quarter's figures, marking two consecutive quarters of contraction following the third quarter. Another notable point is the slight deceleration in the UK's consumer price index.
- UK January CPI year-over-year was announced at 4.0%, falling below the expected 4.1%.
- UK fourth-quarter GDP quarter-over-quarter stood at -0.3%, below the expected -0.1%.
- US January retail sales were -0.8%, missing the expected -0.2%.
- On February 16th, US January Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released.
While the GBP/USD chart is showing an uptrend, the ingredients for a downturn are present, increasing the likelihood of a downward movement. If the lower trendline support holds, we may see continued upward movement towards the upper trendline, but if not, we need to retest the support of the lower trendline. After confirming the low point, we can expect an ascent towards the upper resistance at 1.35000. As the trendline support has not been breached yet, we will lean towards further upward movement.
In summary,
First, a medium-term rise to 1.35000 if supported by trendline.
Second, a medium-to-long-term rise to 1.35000 if supported by the lower trendline at 1.23000 after breaking the trendline support.
These two movements seem most likely at the moment. If there are any variables, we will adjust the strategy accordingly.
The anticipation for a rate cut by the Fed has resurfaced as retail sales in the US significantly undershot expectations. However, the UK's real GDP for the fourth quarter showed a 0.3% decline compared to the previous quarter, falling short of both expectations and the previous quarter's figures, marking two consecutive quarters of contraction following the third quarter. Another notable point is the slight deceleration in the UK's consumer price index.
- UK January CPI year-over-year was announced at 4.0%, falling below the expected 4.1%.
- UK fourth-quarter GDP quarter-over-quarter stood at -0.3%, below the expected -0.1%.
- US January retail sales were -0.8%, missing the expected -0.2%.
- On February 16th, US January Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released.
While the GBP/USD chart is showing an uptrend, the ingredients for a downturn are present, increasing the likelihood of a downward movement. If the lower trendline support holds, we may see continued upward movement towards the upper trendline, but if not, we need to retest the support of the lower trendline. After confirming the low point, we can expect an ascent towards the upper resistance at 1.35000. As the trendline support has not been breached yet, we will lean towards further upward movement.
In summary,
First, a medium-term rise to 1.35000 if supported by trendline.
Second, a medium-to-long-term rise to 1.35000 if supported by the lower trendline at 1.23000 after breaking the trendline support.
These two movements seem most likely at the moment. If there are any variables, we will adjust the strategy accordingly.