GBPUSD - SHORT; SELL it right here!
What better of a (short) entry than just as this starts working it's way through that massive Shark on the Weekly?! ...
SHORT
Not to mention that up to this point the Pound is the manifestation of everything that could be (and has been) thrown at it (monetarily speaking), including the kitchen sink. E.g., There just isn't much left in the BoE's arsenal that could prop this up any farther vs. the USD, endowing this Short Entry with an excellent Risk/Reward ratio!
SHORT
Not to mention that up to this point the Pound is the manifestation of everything that could be (and has been) thrown at it (monetarily speaking), including the kitchen sink. E.g., There just isn't much left in the BoE's arsenal that could prop this up any farther vs. the USD, endowing this Short Entry with an excellent Risk/Reward ratio!
Trade active:
There is a perfect Short Entry;
SHORT
Comment:
One ought to be fully loaded here, off of that Stop Hunt - see above;
... including a ~15 pip cushion, already built in. So, lets hope to get a smooth ride from here on out.
Something may deserve a mention is that, by the looks of it, the EURUSD keeps getting squeezed (lopsided short interest), a lot of it coming from the shift away from the GBPUSD (which is perfectly even), judging from the obvious shift in O.I., from here to the EURUSD. So, that also helps.
p.s. One should also thank the Chinese as they keep dumping their Euro reserves - not the GBP, which is very little - which, hopefully will continue to compensate for any potential EURUSD squeeze - E.g., also preventing the GBPUSD from inadvertently being dragged higher.
Something may deserve a mention is that, by the looks of it, the EURUSD keeps getting squeezed (lopsided short interest), a lot of it coming from the shift away from the GBPUSD (which is perfectly even), judging from the obvious shift in O.I., from here to the EURUSD. So, that also helps.
p.s. One should also thank the Chinese as they keep dumping their Euro reserves - not the GBP, which is very little - which, hopefully will continue to compensate for any potential EURUSD squeeze - E.g., also preventing the GBPUSD from inadvertently being dragged higher.
Comment:
We're at even-money, right now;
It's up to you if you wanna take a little heat here or just short the next Stop Hunt? ... In either case, this remains a massive SHORT, anywhere here (the pivots being miles away)!
Trade active:
Not surprisingly, it's cousin - the GBPCAD - has a very similar look to the original pair here.
The GBPCAD Weekly;
... and here is is the GBPCAD Daily:
... which deserves a mention because it is about to hit that "last" Stop Hunt for the best R/R for a Short Entry, for quite a while! - SHORT
The GBPCAD Weekly;
... and here is is the GBPCAD Daily:
Comment:
This is finally getting it's legs;
Follow red curve (parabola) for stops.
Comment:
Cruisin' ... (for that "last" Stop Hunt, mentioned initially, see in the chart. It worked, too! ;-)
The main position is clearly the GBPUSD -> Short and this additional pair - GBPCAD - is only here for "back up" - being the same directional trade -, in case of missed (re)entries, additions, etc.
Stay SHORT.
Stay SHORT.
Comment:
Note;
Just as the DXY came back to fill that June 12-13 gap and judging from the much increased implied FX options volatilities, across the board - which is quite over-done at this point, in my opinion -, expect increased volatilities in all USD pairs!
Just as the DXY came back to fill that June 12-13 gap and judging from the much increased implied FX options volatilities, across the board - which is quite over-done at this point, in my opinion -, expect increased volatilities in all USD pairs!
Comment:
Note;
Going into next month (July) expiration, 30-days out there are significant increases (almost double) in FX Yen Calls, matched with similar gains in the end-of-July Sterling 125.00 Puts, while spot cash flows point to continued Euro weakness (inline with the potential 106 target, I have pointed to, earlier).
FX options action continue to point to much increased “fears” of a (“surprise” - Really?!) BoJ tightening - as I keep advocating it being a very real possibility!! - while Euro weakness is now being accepted as a foregone conclusion.
E.g. the Yen continues to hold the potential to shock markets (in the event of which the EURJPY will bear the brunt of it!), while there is still some “disbelief” for a sub-125.00 Sterling but (“just in case”? ;-) there is continued, brisk 125 Put buying, now outstripping the short flows in the EURUSD.
E.g., If you’ve been following any of these posts then by now you should be comfortably positioned in all the right places and with room to spare! I.e.; Short all USD base pairs - EURUSD, GBPUSD, etc - and the EURJPY; (very) LONG USDCHF and company.
Most importantly, those “Yen fears” remain just that until something actually happens - normally.
HOWEVER, considering the nature of a 30-year, $3 Trillion short position, and the necessity in such an event for global markets to cover it!…That just simply is Not something that one is very likely to get a chance to waltz in, in the middle of it, to take advantage of the moves that will prompt. E.g. Be strongly advised!!
Going into next month (July) expiration, 30-days out there are significant increases (almost double) in FX Yen Calls, matched with similar gains in the end-of-July Sterling 125.00 Puts, while spot cash flows point to continued Euro weakness (inline with the potential 106 target, I have pointed to, earlier).
FX options action continue to point to much increased “fears” of a (“surprise” - Really?!) BoJ tightening - as I keep advocating it being a very real possibility!! - while Euro weakness is now being accepted as a foregone conclusion.
E.g. the Yen continues to hold the potential to shock markets (in the event of which the EURJPY will bear the brunt of it!), while there is still some “disbelief” for a sub-125.00 Sterling but (“just in case”? ;-) there is continued, brisk 125 Put buying, now outstripping the short flows in the EURUSD.
E.g., If you’ve been following any of these posts then by now you should be comfortably positioned in all the right places and with room to spare! I.e.; Short all USD base pairs - EURUSD, GBPUSD, etc - and the EURJPY; (very) LONG USDCHF and company.
Most importantly, those “Yen fears” remain just that until something actually happens - normally.
HOWEVER, considering the nature of a 30-year, $3 Trillion short position, and the necessity in such an event for global markets to cover it!…That just simply is Not something that one is very likely to get a chance to waltz in, in the middle of it, to take advantage of the moves that will prompt. E.g. Be strongly advised!!
Here is the EURGBP (Long) for reference;