Interest rate advantage gradually disappears, GBP/USD trend
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In addition to the impact of high inflation, UK retailers were hit by heavy rains in July, with sales growth falling to an 11-month low, the survey released on Wednesday showed.
The British Retail Confederation (BRC) said retail sales in July rose 1.5% from a year earlier, less than half the 12-month average of 3.9% and well below the previous level. peaked at 5.2% in February this year.
The data isn't adjusted for inflation, so a slight increase in consumption in July meant a drop in sales.
So far, UK consumers have largely weathered the negative impact of last year's rising inflation and steady rate hikes by the Bank of England, but the impact is likely to be more severe. in the coming months.
These have made the outlook for the UK economy weaker, and the likelihood of further rate hikes by the Bank of England has become limited.
With the interest rate advantage gradually disappearing, and the economic development of the United States is clearly better than Europe in general. Therefore, it looks like GBP/USD has less fundamental support in the near term.
On the daily chart,
GBPUSD
although has recovered significantly from the support level of 1.26820 sent to readers in the previous releases, the upside correction will also be limited by the main bearish channel (b) ).
It is difficult to see a technically sustainable upside in GBP/USD. For GBP/USD to qualify for the upside at least it needs to take the price action above the 0.382% Fibonacci level and break out of the descending channel (b).
A negative case for GBP/USD will quickly emerge as once again moving below the 0.50% Fibonacci level, the target level will then be around 1.26820 and more at 1.26247 at the 0.618% Fibonacci price point.
Despite the recovery, the technical outlook for GBP/USD remains bearish with notable technical levels below.
Support: 1.27235 – 1.26820
Resistance: 1.28224
@BestSC
In addition to the impact of high inflation, UK retailers were hit by heavy rains in July, with sales growth falling to an 11-month low, the survey released on Wednesday showed.
The British Retail Confederation (BRC) said retail sales in July rose 1.5% from a year earlier, less than half the 12-month average of 3.9% and well below the previous level. peaked at 5.2% in February this year.
The data isn't adjusted for inflation, so a slight increase in consumption in July meant a drop in sales.
So far, UK consumers have largely weathered the negative impact of last year's rising inflation and steady rate hikes by the Bank of England, but the impact is likely to be more severe. in the coming months.
These have made the outlook for the UK economy weaker, and the likelihood of further rate hikes by the Bank of England has become limited.
With the interest rate advantage gradually disappearing, and the economic development of the United States is clearly better than Europe in general. Therefore, it looks like GBP/USD has less fundamental support in the near term.
On the daily chart,
GBPUSD
although has recovered significantly from the support level of 1.26820 sent to readers in the previous releases, the upside correction will also be limited by the main bearish channel (b) ). It is difficult to see a technically sustainable upside in GBP/USD. For GBP/USD to qualify for the upside at least it needs to take the price action above the 0.382% Fibonacci level and break out of the descending channel (b).
A negative case for GBP/USD will quickly emerge as once again moving below the 0.50% Fibonacci level, the target level will then be around 1.26820 and more at 1.26247 at the 0.618% Fibonacci price point.
Despite the recovery, the technical outlook for GBP/USD remains bearish with notable technical levels below.
Support: 1.27235 – 1.26820
Resistance: 1.28224
@BestSC
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