The recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank have exposed cracks in the banking system, partially due to overly restrictive monetary policy. This situation could quickly spread, causing the Federal Reserve to intervene to protect depositors and launch emergency liquidity programs to support lending institutions.
In summary, systemic risk may pose challenges to policymakers' long-term plans, at least in the short term, prompting them to prioritize financial stability over combating inflation, which is a slow-moving problem. In this situation, next week's FOMC forward guidance may lean towards a dovish stance.
A few days ago, the US dollar had strong bullish momentum, but the situation has now turned, as is the nature of the market. If there is no strong risk aversion or events that cause funds to flow into safe assets, the US dollar may continue to retreat in the short term, especially if dovish expectations are met.
GBPUSD failed to break above the resistance level of 1.2200 and experienced a downward trend under pressure. However, if the price confirms its position above this resistance, we may see a move towards 1.2450, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2022 decline. Therefore, I still recommend buying on dips, and our long position bought at 1.1800 remains in place.
Personal trading advice: Continue to enter long positions near 1.2000, with a target of 1.2200-1.2400. If the resistance level is broken, continue to hold the position and look for further upward movement. In the long term, there is still significant room for growth, and I will continue to update my personal trading strategy in the future. Please stay tuned.
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