My guess of $GBPAUD is the following
We can spot the uptrend on the D/W/M timeframe as well as the 4h.
The fundamentals looks negative for the GDP
- The GPD QoQ & YoY release on September 30th both have negative consensus. The actual haven't been above the consensus for the last three release and with the new lockdown that has been in place over the past week, we can expect more weakness for the $GBP. -The net COT data for the $GBP is decreasing for the last few weeks. With a substantial number of Long position, the Short positions on the non-commercial side has been on the positive side for the month of august & september. However, we can notice a lot of long positions being closed over the same period of time.
-The CoT Data for the $AUD has been different. The long position started the month of august at roughly 45k and is now standing at 60k Long. Only last week, 15k short positions have been closed. We can expect the uptrend for the $aussie to keep going up as well as it's little brother, the $Kiwi.
On the technical side, we can see a crossover from the 50 & 100 MA below the 200 MA which is also acting like a dynamic support on the 4H.
I am anticipating a Higher Low around the Heartline of the FIB Channel of the current Instutional Uptrend before seing a Big Bounce to a New Higher High to the next 4H Key level / 61 % / 78 % Level of the Fib Channel.
The fundamentals looks negative for the GDP
- The GPD QoQ & YoY release on September 30th both have negative consensus. The actual haven't been above the consensus for the last three release and with the new lockdown that has been in place over the past week, we can expect more weakness for the $GBP. -The net COT data for the $GBP is decreasing for the last few weeks. With a substantial number of Long position, the Short positions on the non-commercial side has been on the positive side for the month of august & september. However, we can notice a lot of long positions being closed over the same period of time.
-The CoT Data for the $AUD has been different. The long position started the month of august at roughly 45k and is now standing at 60k Long. Only last week, 15k short positions have been closed. We can expect the uptrend for the $aussie to keep going up as well as it's little brother, the $Kiwi.
On the technical side, we can see a crossover from the 50 & 100 MA below the 200 MA which is also acting like a dynamic support on the 4H.
I am anticipating a Higher Low around the Heartline of the FIB Channel of the current Instutional Uptrend before seing a Big Bounce to a New Higher High to the next 4H Key level / 61 % / 78 % Level of the Fib Channel.