Market Update – 25/10/20 | FCPO, Sb, Sbo Oil, FX & Othe
Weekend Market Updates & Analysis 25 Oct 2020
Note: If you would like to receive this the latest updates immediately without 3 days release, please search for my site Palm Analysis.
Recap
1) Let’s start the report with a review of last week’s update and market conditions. You can read last week’s report by clicking here: Weekend Market Update – 18 Oct 2020 | FCPO, Soybean, Soybean Oil, Currencies and Others
FCPO
i. On Point 19, 20 i and ii, 30 ii and iia, I said that both the bulls and bears have credible setup, which is classic trading range price action, and bears will likely try to push the market lower, and should the bears fail to resume their second leg down the bull will assume their case has more merits and will buy the pullback for a second leg up to retest the highs of the trading range.
ii. We did see a very strong sell off on Monday, which failed the following day and bulls came back for the second leg up.
Soybean
iii. On Point 6 and 7, I said that Soybean is still in a tight bull channel with strong buying pressure and we will likely see another leg up to form the 3rd leg up for a wedge pattern and a final bull flag.
iv. On Point 30 iii, I said that I was monitoring if we see another leg up to complete the 3rd leg of the wedge pattern to retest the 1080-1100 top of the trading range. So far we got that.
Soybean Oil
v. On Point 10 i, I said we will likely see bears attempt to push below the low of last week and we got that on Monday. I also said that both the bulls and the bears have credible setup, which is classic trading range price action.
vi. On Point 30 iv, I said that I would be monitoring whether the sell of last week was merely just a 2 legged pullback, before the second leg up in Oct resumes and we got that.
Dollar Index
vii. On Point 30 i, I was monitoring if Dollar have another small leg down to create a double bottom at 93 before rallying – (if it rallies at all).
viii. We got that and Dollar fell further than 93 to close at 92.767.
ix. Take note that on my 4th Oct 20 report that you can read here (4 Oct Report), On Point 43 i and ii, I said “that sometimes the 3rd leg up can be very inconspicuous and may just be a 1 bar up and when that happens, the market will likely conclude that this bounce from Sept is likely just a bear rally, and will sell the bounce for a 3rd leg down to test 92 area (recent lows) and then 88-90 area.”
x. So far in the DXY, instead of a 1 bar, we got a 3 bar bounce on the 13th to the 15th, and price started to sell off to the 92 area after that.
What’s up ahead?
Soybean Monthly
2) So far, the monthly bar is a strong bull bar trading near its high at the 1080-1100 top of the multi year trading range.
i. There are 5 more trading days next week, and the bulls wants the bar to close as high as possible, while the bears wants the bar to close below the middle of the bar to reduce the bullishness.
ii. Currently we are looking at 3 strong bull bars on the monthly chart, and a tight bull channel which started in May/Jun period.
Soybean Weekly
3) So far on the weekly chart, the week closed as a bull bar closing near its high with a small tail above, and closed near the top of the multi year trading range of 1080-1100.
i. As I said in my report last week, we are likely looking at a wedge pattern forming, and the current bar has formed the 3rd leg up by breaking above last week’s high.
ii. By closing on its high, I think we are likely to see slightly higher prices next week.
iii. Secondly, looking at the range of the first leg up and the second leg, I think its likely we will see at least another bar up on the weekly chart too.
iii. The bulls wants to close strongly above the 1080-1100 range next week, while the bears wants the breakout to fail, and for prices to close back below the 1080-1100 range for a 2 legged pullback after a wedge pattern.
Daily Soybean
4) So far on the daily chart, price is still trading in a fairly tight bull micro channel.
i. The only noticeable selling pressure is the sell off at the end of Sept, and the 12 Oct 1 day pullback. Other than that, there hasn’t been much selling pressure and no strong consecutive bear bars.
ii. Price traded below the low of the prior day on the 22 Oct, but found more buyers instead of sellers which was expected in such a bullish market.
5) I think we should continue to see slightly higher prices in Soybean as price moves up to complete the wedge pattern and then a pullback after that.
i. We also have to look at the Dollar and other factors which we will cover below.
Soybean Oil Monthly
6) So far on the monthly chart, the bulls have been able to push higher after a failed break below Sept’s low earlier in the month.
i. We are approaching the final trading week of the month. The bulls wants the bar to close near the high and above the middle, while the bears on the other hand wants the price to close below the middle of the bar and as low as possible.
ii. Bulls are looking for a re-test of the recent highs and multi year top of the trading range around 35.50-36 area, and close strongly above it.
iii. The bears on the other hand are looking for prices to fail and close lower for the month.
ii. We will have to monitor how the monthly bar closes next week.
Soybean Oil Weekly
7) The weekly bar closed as a strong bull bar closing near its high with a prominent tail below which makes it likely we will see at least slightly higher prices next week.
i. This week started off by the bears selling below the low of last week, which failed and traded back up to close the week strongly.
ii. The bulls see the second leg up case has more merits at this point.
iii. Taking a measured move up of the first leg, the bulls would probably have a target around 35.25, which is very near to the multi year top of the trading range 35.50-36 area.
8) I’m slightly more favorable to the bull’s case for a second leg up and will be monitoring if they get their target of 35.25 next week.
i. While I’m slightly favoring the bull’s case, I want to also be alert to any possible failed breakout – meaning price breaks above this week’s high and then trade back lower and form a reversal bar.
ii. This would then form a double top setup with the Sept high for the bears.
Soybean Oil Daily
9) The bears tried to form the second leg down on Monday and failed, and prices reversed up higher.
i. I think its fair to say traders will be looking if the second leg up to 35.25 form as expected. If it forms, then its within expectations. If it fails, then it says a lot about the lack of strength of the buyers.
ii. With the buying pressure stronger than the selling pressure, I’m slightly more favorable to the bull’s case at this moment.
Dalian Palm Olein Monthly
10) So far on the Dalian Palm Olein, the monthly chart has a moderate bull body with tails on top and below the bar.
i. 5 more trading days to go next week until the monthly bar closes.
ii. The bulls wants the bar to close near the high of the bar, while the bears wants the bar to close below the middle as low as possible.
iii. Currently on the monthly chart, price is still trading in a tight bull channel, which is a sign of strength. We will have to see how the monthly bar closes next week.
Dalian Palm Olein Weekly
11) On the weekly chart, last week closed as a big doji bar, around the same area as the week before that.
i. We can see prices consolidating in a large trading range near the high of the multi year trading range between 6500 and 5700.
ii. In a trading range, traders buy low and sell high, and;
iii. When prices are in a trading range, traders reverse from buying to selling every few days, and credible setup tends to disappoint both the bull and bears.
iv. The production for CPO is lower this month so logically, we should see higher prices for Palm Olein too.
v. If we do not see this happen, this is a potential red flag for next week. Something to watch out for.
Dalian Palm Olein Daily
12) On the daily chart, after the strong move up, price seems to be forming a triangle pattern since the sell off at the end of Sept.
i. Last week, the bears attempted to resume the second leg lower on Monday and failed, and price has since reversed up.
ii. Traders now expect to see the second leg up from the 30 Sept to 15 Oct first leg form.
iii. If it forms and re-test close to the recent highs fo 6500, then it is within expectations, but;
iv. If it fails to form, that would tell us a lot about the lack of strength of the buyers.
FCPO Monthly
13) So far the monthly bar had a bull body which followed a failed breakout below Sept’s low with a tail above.
i. There are only 4 more trading days in the month due to the Birthday of Prophet Muhammad holiday next week.
ii. The bulls wants the monthly bar to close near the highs, while the bears wants the monthly bar to close below the middle of the bar.
14) So far, prices has been in a 2 month’s trading range between 3100-2680, consolidating near the highs of the multi year trading range.
i. In trading ranges, traders sell the highs and buy the lows.
ii. So I will be monitoring if we see selling come in again as we approach the highs closer to 3100.
Weekly FCPO
14) The weekly bar closed as a bull bar near the highs with a prominent tail below.
i. The bears attempted to resume the second leg lower on Monday and failed and prices reversed up.
ii. Currently, it looks like the bull’s case for a second leg up to a measured move around 3100 has slightly more merit.
iii. If price reach there, buyers will then want price to break above the top of the multi year trading range of 3150-3200.
iv. The bears on the other hand wants prices to fail near the top of the trading range for a Double Top with retest with the Sept highs.
15) With last week’s failed bear breakdown, and this week closing near the highs, we should see slightly higher prices next week.
i. I see a potential measured move to re-test the Sept highs around 3080-3100 on the weekly chart and will be monitoring if we get this next week.
Daily FCPO
16) On the daily chart, after the failed breakdown on Monday, we are now looking at the second leg up from the Oct 5 to Oct 13 first leg up forming.
i. This current leg up is more choppy with more overlapping bars as compared with the first leg. That tells me that the conviction of the bulls are maybe not as strong as the first leg.
ii. I see a minor second measured move up within the second leg with a target around 3050.
iii. Take note that the first leg high stopped around 3020, and the weekly measured move up is around 3080-3100.
iv. With so much measured target above, and prices trading near multi year trading range highs, I will be monitoring if we start to meet into some headwinds for prices. Just something to watch out for, especially if Dollar starts to strengthen next week.
Other issues effecting Palm Oil
17) i. Production should be coming in lower for the month between 5% – 10% for the whole of Malaysia
ii. Exports so far looks not bad. Even if it is slightly higher or lower than Sept, you have to remember Sept was up 12-13% against Aug.
iii. So far no rain and no floods.
iv. News in the media talked about emergency measure by the Govt, but I expect palm industry to operate as per normal except Sabah side.
Let’s look at the currencies.
Dollar Index – DXY
18) So far for the Dollar Index, price traded lower as I suspected it would, and broke below the 93 level.
i. So far, I still do not see it as super bearish, but probably a 2 legged pullback from the Sept 2 legged up move.
ii. What this means is that, we might still see a few more days lower for Dollar next week, but I will be monitoring if this 92-91.50 area holds.
iii. If it does, and price start reversing up after testing lower for a few more days, this is bad news for commodities like SB/SBO/Palm.
iv. What if 92-91.50 area fail to hold and prices continue to break down lower to 88-89 area? Then this would be supportive for SB/SBO/Palm prices.
USD/Chinese Yuan
19) The RMB strengthened against the Dollar earlier in the week and gave back most of it gains.
i. I would prefer to see the RMB continue to strengthen against the USD, but things are looking a bit overdone.
ii. I would be monitoring if we have a weakening of the RMB against the USD next week as this would not be good for commodities prices.
Indian Rupee/USD
20) The Indian Rupee also weakened against the USD last week and that’s not so favorable for palm purchase.
i. The INR weakened against the USD by 0.8% for the week. Luckily, MYR also weakened against the USD by 0.48% which offsets the weakness in INR by half.
ii. I would prefer to see a stronger INR against the USD and if this trend of weakening continues, it would be concerning to me.
USD/MYR
21) As I have said above, it was good that MYR also weakened slightly against the USD, which offsets the weaker Indian Rupee.
i. As an exporter nation, we want our buyers (Importing nations – China, India, Europe, Others) to have stronger currencies against a weaker local currency (MYR)
ii. If the our importing nation’s currency weakens, preferably, I would like to see ours weaken as much or more to offsets the price differentials.
iii. Otherwise, if the differentials grow too large, it might have an adverse effect on commodities purchases.
Other Factors to look at:
Crude Oil
22) Crude Oil traded lower last week.
i. In my past reports, I have said that I would have preferred to see higher crude oil prices as it reflects the health of the global economy.
ii. Higher crude oil prices indicate more cars on the road, more flying and more energy usage by industry for production.
iii. With the increasing Covid cases especially in the USA and Europe, this is starting to dampen the prices of crude oil as the expected demand drops due to lock downs and restrictions to business activities.
iv. If crude continues to trend lower, this would be a worrying trend for overall economic activities.
Other, Other Factors to look at:
Covid-19
23) USA just recorded a record amount of daily cases, almost 90k per day.
i. Remember we had a state election in Sabah and cases went haywire in Malaysia?
ii. Well, USA will be having a national election on the 3rd of Nov, and early election already in the process. I highly suspect this is going to drive up cases going into the fall/winter months – in line with what the experts have been warning us about.
iii. Cases in France, Spain and other EU countries are also ticking up with potential lock down in the UK.
iv. If cases continue to spike at an accelerating pace, we may see countries resort back to drastic measures like lock down once again and when that happens, it may also effect demand for Palm.
v. Can you imagine USA daily cases spike to 200k cases a day or more? Even if Biden wins, we might see a few weeks of lock down just for them to flatten the curve.
vi. Just something to watch out for.
USA Elections
24) I think we should also keep in mind of the USA election on the 3 Nov.
i. We may see a large move by the Dollar due to the election.
ii. If the Dollar spikes lower due to more stimulus expectation, then that’s fine, as that is supportive for commodities prices.
iii. But Dollar also has a tendency to strengthen like it did after Donald Trump won in 2016. That would be bad for commodities prices.
25) Why is this important?
i. Because we do not know how traders globally are positioning or whether they are hedging their positions.
ii. Would traders de-leverage and reduce their long positions in commodities prior to the election? or;
iii. Would they just hedge it?
iv. I honestly don’t know. But it is something we need to be aware off and to monitor if players in the industry start de-leveraging and reduce their positions ahead of the election less than 10 days from now.
Summary
26) I have covered a lot above, I suggest you to go through each of the section of the different products to get a better picture of what I am looking at because I’m afraid this summary may not do it justice or provide you with the clarity of my thoughts.
i. Soybean – I expect slightly higher prices for Soybean and will be monitoring if we get it.
ii. Soybean Oil – I am slightly favoring the bull’s case, but I also want to be alert to any potential failed break up or failed measured move up in SBO next week.
iii. FCPO – with production still tight, and rival commodities still strong, I also expect slightly higher prices next week to around 3020-3080-3100 area. Should we get there, good – within expectations. If we failed to get there? I would start to be careful because that means the sellers are potentially coming out to sell near the highs of the multi year trading near 3100.
iiia. If we do get to the measured target above, traders will then be looking if market can spike even higher, maybe towards the 3150-3200. I will take it 1 step at a time. Reach the targets first, then look at how the currencies are behaving and how the rival commodities are doing.
iv. Dollar (DXY) – the USD look weak, but it could potentially only be a 2 legged pull back only. That means, we might still see a few more days of down move. After that, I will be monitoring closely if we suddenly have a strong reversal up in DXY – if this happens, this is bad for commodities prices.
v. RMB – The Chinese Yuan continue to strengthen against the USD, but I feel like it is a bit overdone. I will be monitoring if there is a bounce there and RMB weaken slightly against the USD. If this happens, we might see some pullback in commodities prices especially the Soybean, Corn, Wheat products.
vi. INR – The Indian Rupee weakened against the USD, which is offset slightly by a weakening MYR/USD too. I would prefer to see a stronger INR. I will be monitoring accordingly.
vii. Important note – should prices move higher within expectation, I would want to be on the lookout for sudden strengthening of the Dollar which might cause prices to fall.
So far that’s all to this week’s report. If there are any major changes, I will update again accordingly.
Till next week.
Best Regards and trade safe.
Tech Trader
Note: If you would like to receive this the latest updates immediately without 3 days release, please search for my site Palm Analysis.
Recap
1) Let’s start the report with a review of last week’s update and market conditions. You can read last week’s report by clicking here: Weekend Market Update – 18 Oct 2020 | FCPO, Soybean, Soybean Oil, Currencies and Others
FCPO
i. On Point 19, 20 i and ii, 30 ii and iia, I said that both the bulls and bears have credible setup, which is classic trading range price action, and bears will likely try to push the market lower, and should the bears fail to resume their second leg down the bull will assume their case has more merits and will buy the pullback for a second leg up to retest the highs of the trading range.
ii. We did see a very strong sell off on Monday, which failed the following day and bulls came back for the second leg up.
Soybean
iii. On Point 6 and 7, I said that Soybean is still in a tight bull channel with strong buying pressure and we will likely see another leg up to form the 3rd leg up for a wedge pattern and a final bull flag.
iv. On Point 30 iii, I said that I was monitoring if we see another leg up to complete the 3rd leg of the wedge pattern to retest the 1080-1100 top of the trading range. So far we got that.
Soybean Oil
v. On Point 10 i, I said we will likely see bears attempt to push below the low of last week and we got that on Monday. I also said that both the bulls and the bears have credible setup, which is classic trading range price action.
vi. On Point 30 iv, I said that I would be monitoring whether the sell of last week was merely just a 2 legged pullback, before the second leg up in Oct resumes and we got that.
Dollar Index
vii. On Point 30 i, I was monitoring if Dollar have another small leg down to create a double bottom at 93 before rallying – (if it rallies at all).
viii. We got that and Dollar fell further than 93 to close at 92.767.
ix. Take note that on my 4th Oct 20 report that you can read here (4 Oct Report), On Point 43 i and ii, I said “that sometimes the 3rd leg up can be very inconspicuous and may just be a 1 bar up and when that happens, the market will likely conclude that this bounce from Sept is likely just a bear rally, and will sell the bounce for a 3rd leg down to test 92 area (recent lows) and then 88-90 area.”
x. So far in the DXY, instead of a 1 bar, we got a 3 bar bounce on the 13th to the 15th, and price started to sell off to the 92 area after that.
What’s up ahead?
Soybean Monthly
2) So far, the monthly bar is a strong bull bar trading near its high at the 1080-1100 top of the multi year trading range.
i. There are 5 more trading days next week, and the bulls wants the bar to close as high as possible, while the bears wants the bar to close below the middle of the bar to reduce the bullishness.
ii. Currently we are looking at 3 strong bull bars on the monthly chart, and a tight bull channel which started in May/Jun period.
Soybean Weekly
3) So far on the weekly chart, the week closed as a bull bar closing near its high with a small tail above, and closed near the top of the multi year trading range of 1080-1100.
i. As I said in my report last week, we are likely looking at a wedge pattern forming, and the current bar has formed the 3rd leg up by breaking above last week’s high.
ii. By closing on its high, I think we are likely to see slightly higher prices next week.
iii. Secondly, looking at the range of the first leg up and the second leg, I think its likely we will see at least another bar up on the weekly chart too.
iii. The bulls wants to close strongly above the 1080-1100 range next week, while the bears wants the breakout to fail, and for prices to close back below the 1080-1100 range for a 2 legged pullback after a wedge pattern.
Daily Soybean
4) So far on the daily chart, price is still trading in a fairly tight bull micro channel.
i. The only noticeable selling pressure is the sell off at the end of Sept, and the 12 Oct 1 day pullback. Other than that, there hasn’t been much selling pressure and no strong consecutive bear bars.
ii. Price traded below the low of the prior day on the 22 Oct, but found more buyers instead of sellers which was expected in such a bullish market.
5) I think we should continue to see slightly higher prices in Soybean as price moves up to complete the wedge pattern and then a pullback after that.
i. We also have to look at the Dollar and other factors which we will cover below.
Soybean Oil Monthly
6) So far on the monthly chart, the bulls have been able to push higher after a failed break below Sept’s low earlier in the month.
i. We are approaching the final trading week of the month. The bulls wants the bar to close near the high and above the middle, while the bears on the other hand wants the price to close below the middle of the bar and as low as possible.
ii. Bulls are looking for a re-test of the recent highs and multi year top of the trading range around 35.50-36 area, and close strongly above it.
iii. The bears on the other hand are looking for prices to fail and close lower for the month.
ii. We will have to monitor how the monthly bar closes next week.
Soybean Oil Weekly
7) The weekly bar closed as a strong bull bar closing near its high with a prominent tail below which makes it likely we will see at least slightly higher prices next week.
i. This week started off by the bears selling below the low of last week, which failed and traded back up to close the week strongly.
ii. The bulls see the second leg up case has more merits at this point.
iii. Taking a measured move up of the first leg, the bulls would probably have a target around 35.25, which is very near to the multi year top of the trading range 35.50-36 area.
8) I’m slightly more favorable to the bull’s case for a second leg up and will be monitoring if they get their target of 35.25 next week.
i. While I’m slightly favoring the bull’s case, I want to also be alert to any possible failed breakout – meaning price breaks above this week’s high and then trade back lower and form a reversal bar.
ii. This would then form a double top setup with the Sept high for the bears.
Soybean Oil Daily
9) The bears tried to form the second leg down on Monday and failed, and prices reversed up higher.
i. I think its fair to say traders will be looking if the second leg up to 35.25 form as expected. If it forms, then its within expectations. If it fails, then it says a lot about the lack of strength of the buyers.
ii. With the buying pressure stronger than the selling pressure, I’m slightly more favorable to the bull’s case at this moment.
Dalian Palm Olein Monthly
10) So far on the Dalian Palm Olein, the monthly chart has a moderate bull body with tails on top and below the bar.
i. 5 more trading days to go next week until the monthly bar closes.
ii. The bulls wants the bar to close near the high of the bar, while the bears wants the bar to close below the middle as low as possible.
iii. Currently on the monthly chart, price is still trading in a tight bull channel, which is a sign of strength. We will have to see how the monthly bar closes next week.
Dalian Palm Olein Weekly
11) On the weekly chart, last week closed as a big doji bar, around the same area as the week before that.
i. We can see prices consolidating in a large trading range near the high of the multi year trading range between 6500 and 5700.
ii. In a trading range, traders buy low and sell high, and;
iii. When prices are in a trading range, traders reverse from buying to selling every few days, and credible setup tends to disappoint both the bull and bears.
iv. The production for CPO is lower this month so logically, we should see higher prices for Palm Olein too.
v. If we do not see this happen, this is a potential red flag for next week. Something to watch out for.
Dalian Palm Olein Daily
12) On the daily chart, after the strong move up, price seems to be forming a triangle pattern since the sell off at the end of Sept.
i. Last week, the bears attempted to resume the second leg lower on Monday and failed, and price has since reversed up.
ii. Traders now expect to see the second leg up from the 30 Sept to 15 Oct first leg form.
iii. If it forms and re-test close to the recent highs fo 6500, then it is within expectations, but;
iv. If it fails to form, that would tell us a lot about the lack of strength of the buyers.
FCPO Monthly
13) So far the monthly bar had a bull body which followed a failed breakout below Sept’s low with a tail above.
i. There are only 4 more trading days in the month due to the Birthday of Prophet Muhammad holiday next week.
ii. The bulls wants the monthly bar to close near the highs, while the bears wants the monthly bar to close below the middle of the bar.
14) So far, prices has been in a 2 month’s trading range between 3100-2680, consolidating near the highs of the multi year trading range.
i. In trading ranges, traders sell the highs and buy the lows.
ii. So I will be monitoring if we see selling come in again as we approach the highs closer to 3100.
Weekly FCPO
14) The weekly bar closed as a bull bar near the highs with a prominent tail below.
i. The bears attempted to resume the second leg lower on Monday and failed and prices reversed up.
ii. Currently, it looks like the bull’s case for a second leg up to a measured move around 3100 has slightly more merit.
iii. If price reach there, buyers will then want price to break above the top of the multi year trading range of 3150-3200.
iv. The bears on the other hand wants prices to fail near the top of the trading range for a Double Top with retest with the Sept highs.
15) With last week’s failed bear breakdown, and this week closing near the highs, we should see slightly higher prices next week.
i. I see a potential measured move to re-test the Sept highs around 3080-3100 on the weekly chart and will be monitoring if we get this next week.
Daily FCPO
16) On the daily chart, after the failed breakdown on Monday, we are now looking at the second leg up from the Oct 5 to Oct 13 first leg up forming.
i. This current leg up is more choppy with more overlapping bars as compared with the first leg. That tells me that the conviction of the bulls are maybe not as strong as the first leg.
ii. I see a minor second measured move up within the second leg with a target around 3050.
iii. Take note that the first leg high stopped around 3020, and the weekly measured move up is around 3080-3100.
iv. With so much measured target above, and prices trading near multi year trading range highs, I will be monitoring if we start to meet into some headwinds for prices. Just something to watch out for, especially if Dollar starts to strengthen next week.
Other issues effecting Palm Oil
17) i. Production should be coming in lower for the month between 5% – 10% for the whole of Malaysia
ii. Exports so far looks not bad. Even if it is slightly higher or lower than Sept, you have to remember Sept was up 12-13% against Aug.
iii. So far no rain and no floods.
iv. News in the media talked about emergency measure by the Govt, but I expect palm industry to operate as per normal except Sabah side.
Let’s look at the currencies.
Dollar Index – DXY
18) So far for the Dollar Index, price traded lower as I suspected it would, and broke below the 93 level.
i. So far, I still do not see it as super bearish, but probably a 2 legged pullback from the Sept 2 legged up move.
ii. What this means is that, we might still see a few more days lower for Dollar next week, but I will be monitoring if this 92-91.50 area holds.
iii. If it does, and price start reversing up after testing lower for a few more days, this is bad news for commodities like SB/SBO/Palm.
iv. What if 92-91.50 area fail to hold and prices continue to break down lower to 88-89 area? Then this would be supportive for SB/SBO/Palm prices.
USD/Chinese Yuan
19) The RMB strengthened against the Dollar earlier in the week and gave back most of it gains.
i. I would prefer to see the RMB continue to strengthen against the USD, but things are looking a bit overdone.
ii. I would be monitoring if we have a weakening of the RMB against the USD next week as this would not be good for commodities prices.
Indian Rupee/USD
20) The Indian Rupee also weakened against the USD last week and that’s not so favorable for palm purchase.
i. The INR weakened against the USD by 0.8% for the week. Luckily, MYR also weakened against the USD by 0.48% which offsets the weakness in INR by half.
ii. I would prefer to see a stronger INR against the USD and if this trend of weakening continues, it would be concerning to me.
USD/MYR
21) As I have said above, it was good that MYR also weakened slightly against the USD, which offsets the weaker Indian Rupee.
i. As an exporter nation, we want our buyers (Importing nations – China, India, Europe, Others) to have stronger currencies against a weaker local currency (MYR)
ii. If the our importing nation’s currency weakens, preferably, I would like to see ours weaken as much or more to offsets the price differentials.
iii. Otherwise, if the differentials grow too large, it might have an adverse effect on commodities purchases.
Other Factors to look at:
Crude Oil
22) Crude Oil traded lower last week.
i. In my past reports, I have said that I would have preferred to see higher crude oil prices as it reflects the health of the global economy.
ii. Higher crude oil prices indicate more cars on the road, more flying and more energy usage by industry for production.
iii. With the increasing Covid cases especially in the USA and Europe, this is starting to dampen the prices of crude oil as the expected demand drops due to lock downs and restrictions to business activities.
iv. If crude continues to trend lower, this would be a worrying trend for overall economic activities.
Other, Other Factors to look at:
Covid-19
23) USA just recorded a record amount of daily cases, almost 90k per day.
i. Remember we had a state election in Sabah and cases went haywire in Malaysia?
ii. Well, USA will be having a national election on the 3rd of Nov, and early election already in the process. I highly suspect this is going to drive up cases going into the fall/winter months – in line with what the experts have been warning us about.
iii. Cases in France, Spain and other EU countries are also ticking up with potential lock down in the UK.
iv. If cases continue to spike at an accelerating pace, we may see countries resort back to drastic measures like lock down once again and when that happens, it may also effect demand for Palm.
v. Can you imagine USA daily cases spike to 200k cases a day or more? Even if Biden wins, we might see a few weeks of lock down just for them to flatten the curve.
vi. Just something to watch out for.
USA Elections
24) I think we should also keep in mind of the USA election on the 3 Nov.
i. We may see a large move by the Dollar due to the election.
ii. If the Dollar spikes lower due to more stimulus expectation, then that’s fine, as that is supportive for commodities prices.
iii. But Dollar also has a tendency to strengthen like it did after Donald Trump won in 2016. That would be bad for commodities prices.
25) Why is this important?
i. Because we do not know how traders globally are positioning or whether they are hedging their positions.
ii. Would traders de-leverage and reduce their long positions in commodities prior to the election? or;
iii. Would they just hedge it?
iv. I honestly don’t know. But it is something we need to be aware off and to monitor if players in the industry start de-leveraging and reduce their positions ahead of the election less than 10 days from now.
Summary
26) I have covered a lot above, I suggest you to go through each of the section of the different products to get a better picture of what I am looking at because I’m afraid this summary may not do it justice or provide you with the clarity of my thoughts.
i. Soybean – I expect slightly higher prices for Soybean and will be monitoring if we get it.
ii. Soybean Oil – I am slightly favoring the bull’s case, but I also want to be alert to any potential failed break up or failed measured move up in SBO next week.
iii. FCPO – with production still tight, and rival commodities still strong, I also expect slightly higher prices next week to around 3020-3080-3100 area. Should we get there, good – within expectations. If we failed to get there? I would start to be careful because that means the sellers are potentially coming out to sell near the highs of the multi year trading near 3100.
iiia. If we do get to the measured target above, traders will then be looking if market can spike even higher, maybe towards the 3150-3200. I will take it 1 step at a time. Reach the targets first, then look at how the currencies are behaving and how the rival commodities are doing.
iv. Dollar (DXY) – the USD look weak, but it could potentially only be a 2 legged pull back only. That means, we might still see a few more days of down move. After that, I will be monitoring closely if we suddenly have a strong reversal up in DXY – if this happens, this is bad for commodities prices.
v. RMB – The Chinese Yuan continue to strengthen against the USD, but I feel like it is a bit overdone. I will be monitoring if there is a bounce there and RMB weaken slightly against the USD. If this happens, we might see some pullback in commodities prices especially the Soybean, Corn, Wheat products.
vi. INR – The Indian Rupee weakened against the USD, which is offset slightly by a weakening MYR/USD too. I would prefer to see a stronger INR. I will be monitoring accordingly.
vii. Important note – should prices move higher within expectation, I would want to be on the lookout for sudden strengthening of the Dollar which might cause prices to fall.
So far that’s all to this week’s report. If there are any major changes, I will update again accordingly.
Till next week.
Best Regards and trade safe.
Tech Trader