Weekend Updates – 4 Oct 2020 | CPO, Soybean, Soybean Oil & FX
Weekend Market Updates & Analysis 4 Oct 2020
What Happened
1) FCPO opened higher Monday and then traded lower by Friday, closing near the low of the week.
Recap from last Weekend’s update.
You can read last week’s update here: Weekend Updates – 27 Sept 2020 | CPO, Soybean, Soybean Oil & Currencies
2) On Point: 58, 59, 60: In my last update, I have said that the odds favor a second leg down before we see a retest of the highs. So far we have the second leg down. Will it continue lower? We will look at these questions below.
On Soybean
3) On Point 26, I said that the bear inside bar closed at the lows, but followed a tight bull micro-channel. Sellers will try to push below the low, but will likely find more buyers below.
i. Prices did push below the low of the previous week, and did indeed find more buyers below, and reversed sharply on Wednesday (believed to be due to lower than expected Soybean stock report) and closed the week as a bull bar with a tail above.
On Soybean Oil
4) On Point 37, I said the bears are looking for a second leg down after a brief bounce and chances are they will likely get it in the next 1-2 weeks.
i. Market held steady for the first 3 days and sold off into the weekend for the second leg down to close the week as a bear bar closing at its low.
On Dollar Index – DXY
5) On Point 53, 55, I said that prices was trading at a trend line resistance at 94.50, and that we may see price pullback before deciding if it there will be another push up to test resistance.
i. So far we have the pullback to support at 93.50
ii. Market is still deciding if this support will hold, and if we will get the 3rd leg bounce up. We should find out by next week.
What’s up ahead?
Soybean Monthly
6) Soybean monthly closed back as a bull bar with a moderate tail above. Price is just within a touch of the multi year trading highs around 1080-1100 level.
i. This makes Sept bull bar as a buy signal bar for the bulls, and we will likely see an attempt to break above the highs of Sept.
ii. Should the bulls get it, we would then ask if the price can continue up to the top of the trading range around 1080-1100, and if prices can break strongly above it.
7) These areas tends to be magnet and target for the bulls. Will prices get there? Here are some of the things we need to look at:
i. China is now on holiday, and will be back to the markets on the 9th which is Friday of next week. Will they continue to buy more Soybeans?
ii. I think if we see a weakening of USD moving forward, I do not see why not because China still have a trade deal to fulfill and they would want to be seen as a credible trading partner holding up to their part of the Phase One trade deal in the eyes of the International community, .
iii. Also, should the stock levels for Soybean and production continues to decline, these are supportive for the market too.
iv. So we will need to monitor these accordingly.
Soybean Weekly
8) Soybean found more buyers after a failed break below last week’s low. This week closed as a bull bar but with a prominent tail above and below.
i. This is poor follow through from the bears and this is a positive point for the bulls. A consecutive bear bar would have made the bear’s case slightly stronger, but they were not able to create it. This week’s bar is a slightly weaker buy signal bar for next week due to the tail above.
9) So essentially, price has been trading sideways for the last 3 weeks between 985 to 1046 with this bounce.
i. Is price forming a potential Final Bull Flag?
ii. There is a potential for this, especially after an extensive run up, price is trading just below the multi year trading range highs and resistance around 1080.
iii. If this is true, it means that price may continue to consolidate here for a bit more, and then have at least another leg up into the top of the trading range attempting to break above the trading range and make new highs.
10) Can price trade down from here? Let’s look at the Daily Chart.
Daily Soybean
11) Soybean tested the support levels that we highlighted last week around 988 which is the 20ema on the Daily Chart.
12) The support held, and price has bounce to trade near the recent highs currently. Can price trade higher from here?
13) So far these are my thoughts:
i. The USD is generally strengthening in the last few weeks, “theoretically”, we should be seeing a lower Soybean price like Soybean Oil. The fact that prices is back trading near the recent highs is telling me the relative strength of Soybeans is there and is bucking the general market trends.
ii. We still need to see what Soybean does from here, but currently from its relative strength, I would favor slightly higher prices.
Soybean Oil Monthly
14) The monthly Sept soybean oil chart closed below the middle the bar, has a small bull body, has a large prominent tail above, and a noticeable tail below.
15) In my last update on Point 33, I said that “Should the bears fail to create a strong bear close for the month, but price still close below the middle of the month, it is still a sell signal bar for Oct, but a weaker one and we may find more buyers than sellers below Sept lows at support areas” primarily because this is the first pullback following a 5 month bull micro channel. Support areas that I am looking at is the 31, and 29 area.
16) On Point 37, I also said that the bears are looking for a second leg down and they are likely to get it in the next 1-2 weeks. So far the bears have managed to push below the lows of Sept, and currently the bar is a bear bar.
i. But because it is still very early in the month, by the end of the month, the bar can look very different that what it is now.
17) I have also said due to the 4-5 bull micro channel on the monthly chart, we will likely find more buyers below at support areas, because the bulls are likely to buy the 1-3 month pullback.
i. So I will be monitoring the 31 to 29 level as support areas for Soybean Oil.
Soybean Oil Weekly
18) In my update last week on Point 37 i, I said that the bears would be looking for a second leg down and they are likely to get it in the next 1-2 weeks
19) On Point 38, I said that “After the pullback is completed, we should see the attempt to rest the recent highs and if the re-test is weak and choppy, and stalls before reaching the highs, traders will conclude that the trend is over and prices will reverse at a lower high or at some sort of double top.”
i. This view still remain the same.
20) I will be monitoring if the levels 31 holds as a support, and if not, probably around the level 30-29.
Daily Soybean Oil
20) So far we are looking at the second leg down for Soybean Oil.
21) My views this week remains the same as last week and as I have summarized in point 19 above.
22) I will be monitoring if prices test the support levels between 31 to 29 and whether these support areas can hold for the re-test of the highs to happen.
Dalian Palm Olein (Monthly, Weekly, Daily)
23) I will not be updating on the Dalian Palm Olein market as China is still in a trading holiday until the 8th and their market will open on Friday of next week.
FCPO Monthly
24) In my update last week, I said that the bears would want to close the monthly bar near the lows, which makes at least slightly lower prices likely this week.
i. The bears manage to get that by Wednesday, and prices bounce slightly in the new month bar and then traded below Sept lows on Friday.
25) Last week I talk about the bears are likely to get their second leg down, and that the areas of 2800 and 2650-00 would be the support areas I will be looking at to see if it holds so that prices can create the attempted re-test higher.
26) The monthly bar has just started and is currently a bear bar. The bar could look very different by the end of the month.
Weekly FCPO
27) Last week I said we may potentially get an inside bar, which means prices trade at a small range – this is a common pattern following an inside-outside bar.
28) But I also said that the bears are looking for a second leg down, which they will likely get as the odds favor that, and thereafter, to monitor 2800 and 2650-00 areas as support areas as I suspect there will be more buyers than sellers below due to the strong trend up since May.
29) So far the bears are getting their second leg down. Price closed the week at 2708, and it is a bear bar, which makes slightly lower price next week a possibility.
30) I will be monitoring if we see strong profit taking from the shorts at the support areas that I have highlighted, and if the support areas hold, to see an attempt to re-test the recent highs.
i. We also have to monitor prices against other factors such as how Soybean, Soybean Oil, and the currencies are doing to make an assessment on how prices will behave moving forward.
Daily FCPO
31) On the daily chart, we can see prices resuming the second leg down, but the strength of the second leg is not as strong as the first leg as we can see the overlapping bars and choppy trade.
32) Price is still in the process to complete the second leg down and I will be monitoring the 2800-2650-00 areas and see if prices holds there.
i. Once the second leg is completed, I do expect to see an attempt to re-test the recent highs.
ii. The manner of the attempt (bounce) will tell us a lot about prices moving forward.
iii. A strong re-test of the highs with very strong buying pressure indicates that prices will attempt higher prices and try to break out of the 3150-3200 level, while;
iv. A weak re-test of the highs with weak buying pressure likely indicate that the bull move and test of the multi-year trading highs has ended and the re-test will likely be a lower high where bears sell the bear rally.
33) Take note that we have to look at the above together with these factors below also:
i. How is the Production in Oct? Rising? Decreasing?
ii. Is the expected rainy season happening causing massive flood and harvest disruption?
iii. Is the Covid situation in Malaysia worsening, and causing new strict Movement Control Order where businesses are not allowed to open again? (This will hurt confidence and demand)
iv. How is the USD as measured by the Dollar Index trading? A strengthening Dollar is bad for Palm, SB, SBO.
v. How is the Chinese Yuan and Indian Rupee trading in relations to the USD? (we will look at these below)
USD/Chinese Yuan
34) The USD has been steadily weakening against the RMB/Chinese Yuan since May. We saw the USD strengthened slightly last week, but this week, traded slightly lower again against the RMB.
35) As we have seen in the Dollar Index, the USD is attempting a bounce, but so far have just managed a 2 legged bounce and currently is in the pullback of the second leg. Should the USD create a weak bounce and then continue to weaken, that would be bullish for the RMB, which is bullish for Soybean/Soybean Oil, which is bullish for Palm.
36) So far from the USD/CNY chart above, the USD is weakening steadily in a tight bear micro channel – but prices is now sideways in the last 3 weeks, which indicates a small trading range around 6.8300 to 6.7500 area.
37) Can the RMB continue to strengthen against the USD? Looking at the tight bear channel, it certainly looks likely. At the very least, this sideways consolidation could be building at least as a Final Bear Flag, which means at least slightly lower prices are likely.
38) So we have to monitor this closely as a stronger RMB against the USD is good for commodities (Soybean/Soybean Oil) which is also good for Palm.
Indian Rupee/USD
39) I would also be looking at the Indian Rupee(INR) versus the USD. I believe logically that a stronger Indian Rupee against the dollar is favorable to Palm prices.
40) Why? Because all palm exports are traded based on USD, and with that view in mind, a stronger INR will be favorable to Palm exports because you can get more USD with less INR.
i. Alternatively, think of it this way: Can you imagine a situation where we have a weakening INR vs UDS (Cost more Rupee to buy USD, and then, a stronger MYR vs USD (Cost more USD to buy MYR?). Bad + Bad. Can’t be good.
41) So far there was a weakening of the INR vs USD in the month of Sept, but currently we are looking at the INR ticking higher last week and closed as a bull bar, but with a tail above. I think we should see slightly stronger INR in the next 1-2 weeks.
Dollar Index – DXY
42) So far, the Dollar Index has had a 2 legged bounce to the bear trend line, and last week pulled back to the 20ema on the daily chart which is support. There is also a lower trend line below as support around the areas of 93.50.
43) Currently, markets are watching if we will get a prominent 3rd leg up to test around the 95-96 area – a wedge push up or better.
i. Why I say prominent – because sometimes, the 3rd leg up can be very inconspicuous and may just be a 1 bar up, and reverse down.
ii. In this case, then the market will likely conclude that this bounce from Sept is likely just a bear rally, and will sell the bounce for a 3rd leg down to to test 92 area (recent lows) and then 88-90 area as I have discussed in my previous 2 reports.
44) So I think the next 1-2 weeks are crucial to monitor the movements of DXY. A stronger dollar is bad for commodities prices namely Soybean/Soybean Oil/ Palm and vice versa.
45) Personally, I think we are going to see slightly higher prices in DXY to around 95-96 in the next 1-2 weeks (which is temporary not good for commodities), and I will be looking at the buying pressure of the bounce. A weak 3rd leg up indicate that it is just a wedge bear rally and we will likely see a weaker dollar in the near future.
i. I will be monitoring the Dollar as per the above accordingly.
Summary
46) We have covered a lot of grounds and these will be what I will be looking at:
i. Soybean traded back near the highs. – is price consolidating sideways, and preparing for another move up? Or is price trading lower next week? First is good for the bulls, while the second is good for the bears.
ii. Soybean oil to complete its second leg down, and to monitor if 31-29 area holds as support – and if support holds, to monitor the strength of the bounce from there. A strong bounce = good for the bulls while a weak bounce is good for the bears.
iii. FCPO is currently also forming its second leg down. I will be monitoring if the areas between 2800-2650-00 area holds as support for prices, and if yes, to monitor the strength of the bounce from there. A strong bounce = good for the bulls while a weak bounce is good for the bears.
iv. Generally I can see the RMB and the INR is strengthening against the USD. I would like to see this continue which is favorable to the bulls, or at least sideways. A significant weakening of RMB and INR against the USD I think will definitely not be a good factor for SB/SBO/Palm.
v. I think the Dollar is trying to find support around the areas of 93-93.50, and if the dollar finds support and bounces in the next 1-2 weeks to 95-96, this will not be favorable for commodities prices at least temporarily. I will also be monitoring for an inconspicuous 3rd leg up – maybe a 1-2 bar up, then reverse down. If this happens, I think the market will believe this recent bounce is just a wedge rally and sell it.
47) As I have highlighted last week in Point 63 of last week’s report, is it possible where we see the Dollar Index strengthen but Palm prices still holds and not drop much?
Answer is yes, its possible. Why?
i. What if production levels drops off significantly? This is good for bulls.
ii. What if it starts to rain at any moment, we see severe flooding in ffb production states and disrupts harvest? This is good for bulls.
iii. What if exports figures are good? This is good for bulls.
iv. What if the Dollar index strengthen against other currencies, but remains weak against RMB and INR? This is also good for SB/SBO/Palm.
iv. So a strengthening Dollar Index does not necessarily equals lower Palm Prices. We need to see it in relation to the RMB, INR, local productions, demand and related factors.
48) So for next week, things are status quo as per last week’s update. I will be monitoring:
i. How strong the current leg down in FCPO is (not very strong currently);
ii. Whether the areas of 2800-2650-00 area holds for a re-test higher;
iii. and if we get the re-test higher, how strong is the re-test? Strong = good for bulls.
iv. At the same time, to monitor if we have a a weakening or strengthening Dollar against CNY & INR.
49) Can prices continue to drop off to say, 2400 non-stop?
i. While there is always such a possibility, currently I would say the probability of this happening is lower than prices having at least a small sideways to up re-test of the highs after holding at support.
ii. The reason for this view is that we can see Soybean currently traded back to near its highs; and
iii. We do not have a firm strengthening of the Dollar – Its just a bounce at this point.
iv. Unless Soybean suddenly sells off aggressively, then I would start to be worried about Palm too.
Other Black Swan Factors To Watch
50) i. Covid cases is ticking up in Malaysia. If we get another strict Movement Control Order, it might hurt confidence and consumption.
ii. The leader of the freeworld is sticken with Covid. He should get the best medical care in the world. But (*touch wood) in case he kicks the bucket, this will likely cause a shock to the world markets and we may see big movements in all instruments such as commodities and equities (big gap down likely).
iii. Even if he doesn’t kick the bucket, he might emerge from this sickness being more resolute to fight the disease he has been writing off until recently, and we may see potentially drastic action from him (though unlikely – just something to watch out for)
What Did I miss out?
51) I also want to touch a bit on Crude Oil.
52) Crude is currently forming the second leg down – which looks like just like a technical correction since the big sell of in April.
53) Preferably, I would like to see Crude start ticking higher after testing support around 36 – 34 area. Lower crude price is generally not so favarable to commodities prices because it can indicate:
i. General world demand and thus economy not doing very well. Why? A strong world economy with strong consumption of energy for economic production, automobiles and flying should cause higher crude prices.
ii. So if crude continues to trade lower and lower, that does that tell you?
iii. Well it tells us that demand is not as strong.
i.e. Less airplanes flying, people driving less due to lockdowns, industries buying less energy for their production usage while output for crude oil can be expanded at any time (Opec and other producing countries are already cutting down their production which can be increased at any time).
So I will be keeping an eye out for Crude as well as a general barometer for world economic health. If we see more and more countries resort to strict lockdown globally as we enter the colder seasons and potentially 2nd and 3rd wave of Covid cases, this will be negative for Crude, and hence, general sentiments and confidence.
I think that’s it for now. It is likely that there will not be an update from me next weekend as I will be away for a personal matter. So unless there are big changes to my analysis this week, I may publish a short quick update on the major changes. Otherwise, expect no updates from me next week.
Wishing you well, trade safe, and as always, if you have any feedback, do get in touch with me.
Thanks for reading.
Best Regards,
Tech Trader
What Happened
1) FCPO opened higher Monday and then traded lower by Friday, closing near the low of the week.
Recap from last Weekend’s update.
You can read last week’s update here: Weekend Updates – 27 Sept 2020 | CPO, Soybean, Soybean Oil & Currencies
2) On Point: 58, 59, 60: In my last update, I have said that the odds favor a second leg down before we see a retest of the highs. So far we have the second leg down. Will it continue lower? We will look at these questions below.
On Soybean
3) On Point 26, I said that the bear inside bar closed at the lows, but followed a tight bull micro-channel. Sellers will try to push below the low, but will likely find more buyers below.
i. Prices did push below the low of the previous week, and did indeed find more buyers below, and reversed sharply on Wednesday (believed to be due to lower than expected Soybean stock report) and closed the week as a bull bar with a tail above.
On Soybean Oil
4) On Point 37, I said the bears are looking for a second leg down after a brief bounce and chances are they will likely get it in the next 1-2 weeks.
i. Market held steady for the first 3 days and sold off into the weekend for the second leg down to close the week as a bear bar closing at its low.
On Dollar Index – DXY
5) On Point 53, 55, I said that prices was trading at a trend line resistance at 94.50, and that we may see price pullback before deciding if it there will be another push up to test resistance.
i. So far we have the pullback to support at 93.50
ii. Market is still deciding if this support will hold, and if we will get the 3rd leg bounce up. We should find out by next week.
What’s up ahead?
Soybean Monthly
6) Soybean monthly closed back as a bull bar with a moderate tail above. Price is just within a touch of the multi year trading highs around 1080-1100 level.
i. This makes Sept bull bar as a buy signal bar for the bulls, and we will likely see an attempt to break above the highs of Sept.
ii. Should the bulls get it, we would then ask if the price can continue up to the top of the trading range around 1080-1100, and if prices can break strongly above it.
7) These areas tends to be magnet and target for the bulls. Will prices get there? Here are some of the things we need to look at:
i. China is now on holiday, and will be back to the markets on the 9th which is Friday of next week. Will they continue to buy more Soybeans?
ii. I think if we see a weakening of USD moving forward, I do not see why not because China still have a trade deal to fulfill and they would want to be seen as a credible trading partner holding up to their part of the Phase One trade deal in the eyes of the International community, .
iii. Also, should the stock levels for Soybean and production continues to decline, these are supportive for the market too.
iv. So we will need to monitor these accordingly.
Soybean Weekly
8) Soybean found more buyers after a failed break below last week’s low. This week closed as a bull bar but with a prominent tail above and below.
i. This is poor follow through from the bears and this is a positive point for the bulls. A consecutive bear bar would have made the bear’s case slightly stronger, but they were not able to create it. This week’s bar is a slightly weaker buy signal bar for next week due to the tail above.
9) So essentially, price has been trading sideways for the last 3 weeks between 985 to 1046 with this bounce.
i. Is price forming a potential Final Bull Flag?
ii. There is a potential for this, especially after an extensive run up, price is trading just below the multi year trading range highs and resistance around 1080.
iii. If this is true, it means that price may continue to consolidate here for a bit more, and then have at least another leg up into the top of the trading range attempting to break above the trading range and make new highs.
10) Can price trade down from here? Let’s look at the Daily Chart.
Daily Soybean
11) Soybean tested the support levels that we highlighted last week around 988 which is the 20ema on the Daily Chart.
12) The support held, and price has bounce to trade near the recent highs currently. Can price trade higher from here?
13) So far these are my thoughts:
i. The USD is generally strengthening in the last few weeks, “theoretically”, we should be seeing a lower Soybean price like Soybean Oil. The fact that prices is back trading near the recent highs is telling me the relative strength of Soybeans is there and is bucking the general market trends.
ii. We still need to see what Soybean does from here, but currently from its relative strength, I would favor slightly higher prices.
Soybean Oil Monthly
14) The monthly Sept soybean oil chart closed below the middle the bar, has a small bull body, has a large prominent tail above, and a noticeable tail below.
15) In my last update on Point 33, I said that “Should the bears fail to create a strong bear close for the month, but price still close below the middle of the month, it is still a sell signal bar for Oct, but a weaker one and we may find more buyers than sellers below Sept lows at support areas” primarily because this is the first pullback following a 5 month bull micro channel. Support areas that I am looking at is the 31, and 29 area.
16) On Point 37, I also said that the bears are looking for a second leg down and they are likely to get it in the next 1-2 weeks. So far the bears have managed to push below the lows of Sept, and currently the bar is a bear bar.
i. But because it is still very early in the month, by the end of the month, the bar can look very different that what it is now.
17) I have also said due to the 4-5 bull micro channel on the monthly chart, we will likely find more buyers below at support areas, because the bulls are likely to buy the 1-3 month pullback.
i. So I will be monitoring the 31 to 29 level as support areas for Soybean Oil.
Soybean Oil Weekly
18) In my update last week on Point 37 i, I said that the bears would be looking for a second leg down and they are likely to get it in the next 1-2 weeks
19) On Point 38, I said that “After the pullback is completed, we should see the attempt to rest the recent highs and if the re-test is weak and choppy, and stalls before reaching the highs, traders will conclude that the trend is over and prices will reverse at a lower high or at some sort of double top.”
i. This view still remain the same.
20) I will be monitoring if the levels 31 holds as a support, and if not, probably around the level 30-29.
Daily Soybean Oil
20) So far we are looking at the second leg down for Soybean Oil.
21) My views this week remains the same as last week and as I have summarized in point 19 above.
22) I will be monitoring if prices test the support levels between 31 to 29 and whether these support areas can hold for the re-test of the highs to happen.
Dalian Palm Olein (Monthly, Weekly, Daily)
23) I will not be updating on the Dalian Palm Olein market as China is still in a trading holiday until the 8th and their market will open on Friday of next week.
FCPO Monthly
24) In my update last week, I said that the bears would want to close the monthly bar near the lows, which makes at least slightly lower prices likely this week.
i. The bears manage to get that by Wednesday, and prices bounce slightly in the new month bar and then traded below Sept lows on Friday.
25) Last week I talk about the bears are likely to get their second leg down, and that the areas of 2800 and 2650-00 would be the support areas I will be looking at to see if it holds so that prices can create the attempted re-test higher.
26) The monthly bar has just started and is currently a bear bar. The bar could look very different by the end of the month.
Weekly FCPO
27) Last week I said we may potentially get an inside bar, which means prices trade at a small range – this is a common pattern following an inside-outside bar.
28) But I also said that the bears are looking for a second leg down, which they will likely get as the odds favor that, and thereafter, to monitor 2800 and 2650-00 areas as support areas as I suspect there will be more buyers than sellers below due to the strong trend up since May.
29) So far the bears are getting their second leg down. Price closed the week at 2708, and it is a bear bar, which makes slightly lower price next week a possibility.
30) I will be monitoring if we see strong profit taking from the shorts at the support areas that I have highlighted, and if the support areas hold, to see an attempt to re-test the recent highs.
i. We also have to monitor prices against other factors such as how Soybean, Soybean Oil, and the currencies are doing to make an assessment on how prices will behave moving forward.
Daily FCPO
31) On the daily chart, we can see prices resuming the second leg down, but the strength of the second leg is not as strong as the first leg as we can see the overlapping bars and choppy trade.
32) Price is still in the process to complete the second leg down and I will be monitoring the 2800-2650-00 areas and see if prices holds there.
i. Once the second leg is completed, I do expect to see an attempt to re-test the recent highs.
ii. The manner of the attempt (bounce) will tell us a lot about prices moving forward.
iii. A strong re-test of the highs with very strong buying pressure indicates that prices will attempt higher prices and try to break out of the 3150-3200 level, while;
iv. A weak re-test of the highs with weak buying pressure likely indicate that the bull move and test of the multi-year trading highs has ended and the re-test will likely be a lower high where bears sell the bear rally.
33) Take note that we have to look at the above together with these factors below also:
i. How is the Production in Oct? Rising? Decreasing?
ii. Is the expected rainy season happening causing massive flood and harvest disruption?
iii. Is the Covid situation in Malaysia worsening, and causing new strict Movement Control Order where businesses are not allowed to open again? (This will hurt confidence and demand)
iv. How is the USD as measured by the Dollar Index trading? A strengthening Dollar is bad for Palm, SB, SBO.
v. How is the Chinese Yuan and Indian Rupee trading in relations to the USD? (we will look at these below)
USD/Chinese Yuan
34) The USD has been steadily weakening against the RMB/Chinese Yuan since May. We saw the USD strengthened slightly last week, but this week, traded slightly lower again against the RMB.
35) As we have seen in the Dollar Index, the USD is attempting a bounce, but so far have just managed a 2 legged bounce and currently is in the pullback of the second leg. Should the USD create a weak bounce and then continue to weaken, that would be bullish for the RMB, which is bullish for Soybean/Soybean Oil, which is bullish for Palm.
36) So far from the USD/CNY chart above, the USD is weakening steadily in a tight bear micro channel – but prices is now sideways in the last 3 weeks, which indicates a small trading range around 6.8300 to 6.7500 area.
37) Can the RMB continue to strengthen against the USD? Looking at the tight bear channel, it certainly looks likely. At the very least, this sideways consolidation could be building at least as a Final Bear Flag, which means at least slightly lower prices are likely.
38) So we have to monitor this closely as a stronger RMB against the USD is good for commodities (Soybean/Soybean Oil) which is also good for Palm.
Indian Rupee/USD
39) I would also be looking at the Indian Rupee(INR) versus the USD. I believe logically that a stronger Indian Rupee against the dollar is favorable to Palm prices.
40) Why? Because all palm exports are traded based on USD, and with that view in mind, a stronger INR will be favorable to Palm exports because you can get more USD with less INR.
i. Alternatively, think of it this way: Can you imagine a situation where we have a weakening INR vs UDS (Cost more Rupee to buy USD, and then, a stronger MYR vs USD (Cost more USD to buy MYR?). Bad + Bad. Can’t be good.
41) So far there was a weakening of the INR vs USD in the month of Sept, but currently we are looking at the INR ticking higher last week and closed as a bull bar, but with a tail above. I think we should see slightly stronger INR in the next 1-2 weeks.
Dollar Index – DXY
42) So far, the Dollar Index has had a 2 legged bounce to the bear trend line, and last week pulled back to the 20ema on the daily chart which is support. There is also a lower trend line below as support around the areas of 93.50.
43) Currently, markets are watching if we will get a prominent 3rd leg up to test around the 95-96 area – a wedge push up or better.
i. Why I say prominent – because sometimes, the 3rd leg up can be very inconspicuous and may just be a 1 bar up, and reverse down.
ii. In this case, then the market will likely conclude that this bounce from Sept is likely just a bear rally, and will sell the bounce for a 3rd leg down to to test 92 area (recent lows) and then 88-90 area as I have discussed in my previous 2 reports.
44) So I think the next 1-2 weeks are crucial to monitor the movements of DXY. A stronger dollar is bad for commodities prices namely Soybean/Soybean Oil/ Palm and vice versa.
45) Personally, I think we are going to see slightly higher prices in DXY to around 95-96 in the next 1-2 weeks (which is temporary not good for commodities), and I will be looking at the buying pressure of the bounce. A weak 3rd leg up indicate that it is just a wedge bear rally and we will likely see a weaker dollar in the near future.
i. I will be monitoring the Dollar as per the above accordingly.
Summary
46) We have covered a lot of grounds and these will be what I will be looking at:
i. Soybean traded back near the highs. – is price consolidating sideways, and preparing for another move up? Or is price trading lower next week? First is good for the bulls, while the second is good for the bears.
ii. Soybean oil to complete its second leg down, and to monitor if 31-29 area holds as support – and if support holds, to monitor the strength of the bounce from there. A strong bounce = good for the bulls while a weak bounce is good for the bears.
iii. FCPO is currently also forming its second leg down. I will be monitoring if the areas between 2800-2650-00 area holds as support for prices, and if yes, to monitor the strength of the bounce from there. A strong bounce = good for the bulls while a weak bounce is good for the bears.
iv. Generally I can see the RMB and the INR is strengthening against the USD. I would like to see this continue which is favorable to the bulls, or at least sideways. A significant weakening of RMB and INR against the USD I think will definitely not be a good factor for SB/SBO/Palm.
v. I think the Dollar is trying to find support around the areas of 93-93.50, and if the dollar finds support and bounces in the next 1-2 weeks to 95-96, this will not be favorable for commodities prices at least temporarily. I will also be monitoring for an inconspicuous 3rd leg up – maybe a 1-2 bar up, then reverse down. If this happens, I think the market will believe this recent bounce is just a wedge rally and sell it.
47) As I have highlighted last week in Point 63 of last week’s report, is it possible where we see the Dollar Index strengthen but Palm prices still holds and not drop much?
Answer is yes, its possible. Why?
i. What if production levels drops off significantly? This is good for bulls.
ii. What if it starts to rain at any moment, we see severe flooding in ffb production states and disrupts harvest? This is good for bulls.
iii. What if exports figures are good? This is good for bulls.
iv. What if the Dollar index strengthen against other currencies, but remains weak against RMB and INR? This is also good for SB/SBO/Palm.
iv. So a strengthening Dollar Index does not necessarily equals lower Palm Prices. We need to see it in relation to the RMB, INR, local productions, demand and related factors.
48) So for next week, things are status quo as per last week’s update. I will be monitoring:
i. How strong the current leg down in FCPO is (not very strong currently);
ii. Whether the areas of 2800-2650-00 area holds for a re-test higher;
iii. and if we get the re-test higher, how strong is the re-test? Strong = good for bulls.
iv. At the same time, to monitor if we have a a weakening or strengthening Dollar against CNY & INR.
49) Can prices continue to drop off to say, 2400 non-stop?
i. While there is always such a possibility, currently I would say the probability of this happening is lower than prices having at least a small sideways to up re-test of the highs after holding at support.
ii. The reason for this view is that we can see Soybean currently traded back to near its highs; and
iii. We do not have a firm strengthening of the Dollar – Its just a bounce at this point.
iv. Unless Soybean suddenly sells off aggressively, then I would start to be worried about Palm too.
Other Black Swan Factors To Watch
50) i. Covid cases is ticking up in Malaysia. If we get another strict Movement Control Order, it might hurt confidence and consumption.
ii. The leader of the freeworld is sticken with Covid. He should get the best medical care in the world. But (*touch wood) in case he kicks the bucket, this will likely cause a shock to the world markets and we may see big movements in all instruments such as commodities and equities (big gap down likely).
iii. Even if he doesn’t kick the bucket, he might emerge from this sickness being more resolute to fight the disease he has been writing off until recently, and we may see potentially drastic action from him (though unlikely – just something to watch out for)
What Did I miss out?
51) I also want to touch a bit on Crude Oil.
52) Crude is currently forming the second leg down – which looks like just like a technical correction since the big sell of in April.
53) Preferably, I would like to see Crude start ticking higher after testing support around 36 – 34 area. Lower crude price is generally not so favarable to commodities prices because it can indicate:
i. General world demand and thus economy not doing very well. Why? A strong world economy with strong consumption of energy for economic production, automobiles and flying should cause higher crude prices.
ii. So if crude continues to trade lower and lower, that does that tell you?
iii. Well it tells us that demand is not as strong.
i.e. Less airplanes flying, people driving less due to lockdowns, industries buying less energy for their production usage while output for crude oil can be expanded at any time (Opec and other producing countries are already cutting down their production which can be increased at any time).
So I will be keeping an eye out for Crude as well as a general barometer for world economic health. If we see more and more countries resort to strict lockdown globally as we enter the colder seasons and potentially 2nd and 3rd wave of Covid cases, this will be negative for Crude, and hence, general sentiments and confidence.
I think that’s it for now. It is likely that there will not be an update from me next weekend as I will be away for a personal matter. So unless there are big changes to my analysis this week, I may publish a short quick update on the major changes. Otherwise, expect no updates from me next week.
Wishing you well, trade safe, and as always, if you have any feedback, do get in touch with me.
Thanks for reading.
Best Regards,
Tech Trader