CHRONOLOGY
What will happen from now, APRIL 8?
Right now we would be in a fourth phase in which Europe is already emerging from the pandemic and in the USA they are still not reaching the peak of cases with a curve that may worsen. If the curve worsens, the stock indices (SP500, DOW AND NASDAQ) would begin to drop to draw a bearish wave 5 that will most likely touch the previous lows and then bounce strongly. If this were the case, we would be in scenario 2 in green. With a descent that went out of the bearish channel and then rebounded and re-entered it.
In the event that we are slowly emerging from the pandemic and there are no sudden changes in the number of infections, we would be at 1 in green.
With this, in both cases we have a tendency against the dollar due to the great drops that the change has experienced and because the USA is going to come out after the crisis although the USA is much stronger than Europe and has many more means to endure these eventualities. With this, as soon as he touches the channel above, we will surely return to the general trend with a dollar that is going to become much stronger by 2021. Despite what Trump likes or dislikes. In addition, there are elections in the USA this year, so if the Democratic candidate also won, I think that the dollar could rise much more, although this is already my opinion.
SUMMARY
EURUSD LONG-->SHORT-TERM UNTIL TOUCH CHANNEL (1.10 CHANGE)1-2 MONTHS
EURUSD SHORT --> LONG TERM
FULL ANALYSIS (APRIL 9th, 2020)
www.diariodeuningeni...co19_eur_usd_es.html
- Due to the COVID the euro dollar has oscillated with tremendous acceleration. It would first react to the downside due to an unprecedented crisis in Europe where every investor in fear should take positions in dollars (1) from the beginning of 2020.
- Faced with the conversion of the danger to Global and with a high probability that it will hit the USA squarely, the US government would take out the wallet, with an unprecedented injection of dollars (up to $ 2 trillion) and eliminating all previous rate hikes until it was dropped. to 0.
This would provoke a second reaction against the dollar and in favor of the euro and all other currencies (2). If you see each time you are close to the price exceeding the thick black line, if the trend is downward as the current one, it tends to turn the value and bounces strongly downward.
In this case it would be a while before this happened.
- Then we have had the rebound to the drop in foreign exchange due to the normalization of the pandemic. Also the injection of europe from the ECB has had quite an effect in re-playing the cards in favor of the dollar (3) with purchases of 500,000 million dollars.
What will happen from now, APRIL 8?
Right now we would be in a fourth phase in which Europe is already emerging from the pandemic and in the USA they are still not reaching the peak of cases with a curve that may worsen. If the curve worsens, the stock indices (SP500, DOW AND NASDAQ) would begin to drop to draw a bearish wave 5 that will most likely touch the previous lows and then bounce strongly. If this were the case, we would be in scenario 2 in green. With a descent that went out of the bearish channel and then rebounded and re-entered it.
In the event that we are slowly emerging from the pandemic and there are no sudden changes in the number of infections, we would be at 1 in green.
With this, in both cases we have a tendency against the dollar due to the great drops that the change has experienced and because the USA is going to come out after the crisis although the USA is much stronger than Europe and has many more means to endure these eventualities. With this, as soon as he touches the channel above, we will surely return to the general trend with a dollar that is going to become much stronger by 2021. Despite what Trump likes or dislikes. In addition, there are elections in the USA this year, so if the Democratic candidate also won, I think that the dollar could rise much more, although this is already my opinion.
SUMMARY
EURUSD LONG-->SHORT-TERM UNTIL TOUCH CHANNEL (1.10 CHANGE)1-2 MONTHS
EURUSD SHORT --> LONG TERM
FULL ANALYSIS (APRIL 9th, 2020)
www.diariodeuningeni...co19_eur_usd_es.html