EURUSD: 1D Death Cross forming. Bearish or Bullish?
EURUSD has erased most of yesterday's "Fed fuelled" gains with a strong 1D red candle that turned the 1D timeframe neutral again (RSI = 48.908, MACD = 0.002, ADX = 36.543). Amidst this volatility a strong technical development is going unnoticed. The pair is about to form the first 1D Death Cross since September 28th 2023 and only second since July 22nd 2021.
While this is primarily a bearish technical pattern, the last Death Cross was formed on a market bottom. However the 1D MACD wasn't on a Bearish Cross as it is now. In fact out of the previous five MACD Bearish Cross in the last 12 months, four have been bearish and only once (July 4th 2023), the pair rebounded. The difference then was that the 1D MA50 held Support and initiated a rebound. Same kind of rebound as on December 8th 2023. Both rose by approximately +4%.
So based on that past price action, how do we trade the current 1D Death Cross. As shown above, there are far greater probabilities of being a Sell Signal. However we won't trade it without confirmation first. You can see a short term Channel Up and a longer Channel Down. If the price crosses over the dotted top of the Channel Down, we will buy and target the top confluence with the dashed LH trendline (TP = 1.10850). Technically the leg can go even higher to around +4% from the bottom (as mentioned above that was the average rise of the legs that held the 1D MA50).
If the price crosses under the Channel Up (naturally closes under the 1D MA50), we will sell and target the dashed LL trendline (TP = 1.06900), which will be a -2.67% from the recent top, like the December 8th 2023 decline.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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While this is primarily a bearish technical pattern, the last Death Cross was formed on a market bottom. However the 1D MACD wasn't on a Bearish Cross as it is now. In fact out of the previous five MACD Bearish Cross in the last 12 months, four have been bearish and only once (July 4th 2023), the pair rebounded. The difference then was that the 1D MA50 held Support and initiated a rebound. Same kind of rebound as on December 8th 2023. Both rose by approximately +4%.
So based on that past price action, how do we trade the current 1D Death Cross. As shown above, there are far greater probabilities of being a Sell Signal. However we won't trade it without confirmation first. You can see a short term Channel Up and a longer Channel Down. If the price crosses over the dotted top of the Channel Down, we will buy and target the top confluence with the dashed LH trendline (TP = 1.10850). Technically the leg can go even higher to around +4% from the bottom (as mentioned above that was the average rise of the legs that held the 1D MA50).
If the price crosses under the Channel Up (naturally closes under the 1D MA50), we will sell and target the dashed LL trendline (TP = 1.06900), which will be a -2.67% from the recent top, like the December 8th 2023 decline.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
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Over 65% accuracy on Private Signals Channel.
Over 15% return monthly on our Account Management Plan.
Account RECOVERY services.
Free Channel: t.me/investingscopeofficial