EURUSD has been trending bearish now since April 19th. With only a slight fake out on the 10th of March before being stopped dead at resistance on the 9 day MA.
Its safe to say the overall trend is still looking bearish on the daily as price continues to make lower lows.
If we check out the monthly below we can see an inverse head and shoulders proceeded by the current bearish price action where we have stopped as of now on the .382 fib retracement.
Now checking out the EUR index (Essentially a weighted average of the EUR against counter pairs)
From a quick glance you can see what appear to be the formation of a reversal, giving us more reason to assume the EUR pairs will see a drop in the coming days.
Conversely looking at the USD index (weighted average once again) we see the opposite story.
Strong bullish trending since the 26th March and all 3 MA's (Sorry if you can't see I threw them all in pinescript, they are the 9,20 & 65) are starting to poit upwards ready to break out.
Its safe to say the overall trend is still looking bearish on the daily as price continues to make lower lows.
If we check out the monthly below we can see an inverse head and shoulders proceeded by the current bearish price action where we have stopped as of now on the .382 fib retracement.
Now checking out the EUR index (Essentially a weighted average of the EUR against counter pairs)
Conversely looking at the USD index (weighted average once again) we see the opposite story.
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Price is starting to break down once again - For anyone who hasn't entered this trade just yet I would wait until price closes below 1.764 for confirmation that this isn't just another fake-out.
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USD Weighted average is in full bull mode now hence the drop in all pairs countering it.
We are very close to our take profit target - I suspect we won't see this by the end of today an it will be a panic on the Monday as the market decides the next actions for the beginning of the week. But fundamentally from the USD weighted average, I think the EUR is going to continue to drop as USD look as though it has a nice amount of space to come back to before meeting previous resistance.
Comment:
Also check out the moving averages on the USD index! All pointing up ready to break out. This actually gives me more reason to suggest we could possibly see even lower lows than our take profit target, although to be safe I would take profit once this has been met an conduct further analysis on how the USD index is looking at the time.