EUR/USD dips ahead of US jobless claims, durable goods orders
The euro has edged lower on Thursday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0851, down 0.11%.
On the data calendar, there are no releases from the eurozone. The US releases unemployment claims and durable goods orders and we could see some movement from EUR/USD in the North American session. On Friday, Germany releases Ifo Business Climate. The index has decelerated for three consecutive months and the downturn is expected to continue (87.3 in July, 86.7 expected).
Eurozone and German PMIs were nothing to cheer about, as the August numbers pointed to contraction in the manufacturing and services sectors. Germany's manufacturing sector has been particularly weak, although the Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 39.1 in August, up from 38.8 in July and the consensus estimate of 38.1. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI climbed to 43.7 in August, higher than the July reading of 42.7 and the estimate of 42.6 points.
The services sector is in better shape and has been expanding throughout 2023. That trend came to a screeching halt on Wednesday when German and Eurozone Services PMIs fell into contraction territory in August (a reading of 50.0 separates expansion from contraction). Germany dropped to 47.3, down from 52.3 in July and below the estimate of 51.5. Similarly, the eurozone slowed to 48.3, down from 50.9 and shy of the estimate of 50.5 points.
The weak PMI reports pushed the euro lower but it managed to recover without much fuss. As for the ECB, the data supports the case for a pause, as the softness in manufacturing and services is evidence that the eurozone economy is cooling down. A pause would give the ECB some time to monitor the impact of previous rate hikes are having on the economy and on inflation. Future market traders are viewing the September meeting as a coin toss between a 25 basis point hike and a pause.
There is resistance at 1.0893 and 1.0940
EUR/USD has support at 1.0825 and 1.0778
On the data calendar, there are no releases from the eurozone. The US releases unemployment claims and durable goods orders and we could see some movement from EUR/USD in the North American session. On Friday, Germany releases Ifo Business Climate. The index has decelerated for three consecutive months and the downturn is expected to continue (87.3 in July, 86.7 expected).
Eurozone and German PMIs were nothing to cheer about, as the August numbers pointed to contraction in the manufacturing and services sectors. Germany's manufacturing sector has been particularly weak, although the Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 39.1 in August, up from 38.8 in July and the consensus estimate of 38.1. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI climbed to 43.7 in August, higher than the July reading of 42.7 and the estimate of 42.6 points.
The services sector is in better shape and has been expanding throughout 2023. That trend came to a screeching halt on Wednesday when German and Eurozone Services PMIs fell into contraction territory in August (a reading of 50.0 separates expansion from contraction). Germany dropped to 47.3, down from 52.3 in July and below the estimate of 51.5. Similarly, the eurozone slowed to 48.3, down from 50.9 and shy of the estimate of 50.5 points.
The weak PMI reports pushed the euro lower but it managed to recover without much fuss. As for the ECB, the data supports the case for a pause, as the softness in manufacturing and services is evidence that the eurozone economy is cooling down. A pause would give the ECB some time to monitor the impact of previous rate hikes are having on the economy and on inflation. Future market traders are viewing the September meeting as a coin toss between a 25 basis point hike and a pause.
There is resistance at 1.0893 and 1.0940
EUR/USD has support at 1.0825 and 1.0778