Hello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :)
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A dramatic session for the EUR/USD has seen the market jump substantially higher following the European Central Bank's announcement (ECB). A closure over critical price resistance at 1.1483/95 would establish a stronger base, allowing for additional advances.
The market is trading at 1.14750 at the time of writing with a strong Bullish candle, in the last couple of days we have seen the EUR jump from 1.11125 all the way to 1.14750 a 3.2 % increase in value.
Possible Scenarios for the market :
The market is trading near the resistance line located at 1.1483 if the Bulls were able to keep control over the market and breakout that resistance then we will probably see a further push that will lead the EUR to the 1.16872 level, and a Bullish RSI divergence has been found that confirms a good Bullish movement.
In case the Bears were able to grab control back then we might see a small drop that will reach the first support line located at 1.13830 where a battle will happen between the Bears and the Bulls over control with the outcome being most likely to the Bulls.
Technical indicators show :
1) The Market is above the 5 10 20 50 100 MA and EMA (Strong Bullish sign) But still below the 200 MA and EMA.
2) The RSI is at 62.71 showing great strength with a Bullish divergence between the chart and the indicator.
3) The MACD is above the 0 line indicating a Bullish market, with a positive crossover between the MACD line and the zero line.
Support & Resistance points :
support Resistance
1) 1.1320 1) 1.1505
2) 1.1201 2) 1.1571
3) 1.1135 3) 1.1690
Fundamental point of view :
the main reason for the euro’s gains was ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference following the central bank policy meeting, where she acknowledged the mounting inflation risks and declined to repeat previous guidance that an interest rate increase this year was extremely unlikely.
All this has clearly paved the way for markets to speculate quite freely on a change in forward guidance in March (i.e. explicitly signaling the chance of a 2022 hike) and by extension on the pace, size and timing of ECB tightening.
The release of U.S. nonfarm payroll data later Friday could impact this thinking, but with the focus more on inflation a sharp slowdown in jobs growth in January due to the spread of the Omicron Covid-19 variant is unlikely to move the dollar too much.
This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from Fundamental Analysts and News for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice.
If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !!
Thank you for reading.
_________________________________Make sure to Like and Follow if you like the idea_________________________________
A dramatic session for the EUR/USD has seen the market jump substantially higher following the European Central Bank's announcement (ECB). A closure over critical price resistance at 1.1483/95 would establish a stronger base, allowing for additional advances.
The market is trading at 1.14750 at the time of writing with a strong Bullish candle, in the last couple of days we have seen the EUR jump from 1.11125 all the way to 1.14750 a 3.2 % increase in value.
Possible Scenarios for the market :
The market is trading near the resistance line located at 1.1483 if the Bulls were able to keep control over the market and breakout that resistance then we will probably see a further push that will lead the EUR to the 1.16872 level, and a Bullish RSI divergence has been found that confirms a good Bullish movement.
In case the Bears were able to grab control back then we might see a small drop that will reach the first support line located at 1.13830 where a battle will happen between the Bears and the Bulls over control with the outcome being most likely to the Bulls.
Technical indicators show :
1) The Market is above the 5 10 20 50 100 MA and EMA (Strong Bullish sign) But still below the 200 MA and EMA.
2) The RSI is at 62.71 showing great strength with a Bullish divergence between the chart and the indicator.
3) The MACD is above the 0 line indicating a Bullish market, with a positive crossover between the MACD line and the zero line.
Support & Resistance points :
support Resistance
1) 1.1320 1) 1.1505
2) 1.1201 2) 1.1571
3) 1.1135 3) 1.1690
Fundamental point of view :
the main reason for the euro’s gains was ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference following the central bank policy meeting, where she acknowledged the mounting inflation risks and declined to repeat previous guidance that an interest rate increase this year was extremely unlikely.
All this has clearly paved the way for markets to speculate quite freely on a change in forward guidance in March (i.e. explicitly signaling the chance of a 2022 hike) and by extension on the pace, size and timing of ECB tightening.
The release of U.S. nonfarm payroll data later Friday could impact this thinking, but with the focus more on inflation a sharp slowdown in jobs growth in January due to the spread of the Omicron Covid-19 variant is unlikely to move the dollar too much.
This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from Fundamental Analysts and News for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice.
If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !!
Thank you for reading.