✅ Daily Market Analysis - THURSDAY AUGUST 24, 2023

Key events:

USA - Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jul)
USA - Initial Jobless Claims


The close of Wednesday's trading day witnessed a significant upsurge in US stocks, largely driven by the surging value of Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) shares, as the company approached its quarterly financial disclosures. Nvidia's chips are widely utilized for artificial intelligence (AI) computing applications.

Nvidia's shares exhibited a noteworthy climb of 9%, building upon a prior increase of 3.2% during the regular trading session. The company proceeded to predict third-quarter revenue that surpassed the expectations of analysts on Wall Street. This positive momentum also had a ripple effect on other tech companies in after-hours trading. For instance, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) experienced a rise of approximately 2%.

Nvidia stock daily chart

Microsoft stock daily chart

Investors who hold a bullish outlook have nurtured expectations that Nvidia's favorable announcements could provide a further boost to the already robust surge in the value of tech stocks. Taking into account the cumulative movement, Nvidia's stock has soared by over 220% within the current year.

The imminent impact of Nvidia's statements during their conference call, specifically related to their financial performance and the landscape of artificial intelligence (AI), is predicted to exert a significant influence on the prevailing market sentiment.

Nvidia stands as a vital element within the well-recognized group of mega-cap stocks referred to as the "Magnificent Seven." This group includes prominent names such as Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA). These influential companies have played a pivotal role in driving the substantial upward trajectory observed in the S&P 500 index throughout the ongoing year.

S&P 500 daily chart

Currently, investors are closely monitoring the unfolding developments in China, with a particular focus on the measures taken by Beijing to safeguard its domestic currency. The proximity of the USD/CNY pair to the 7.30 level is causing heightened concern, as Chinese authorities are acutely aware of the potential implications associated with crossing this threshold. To address this, the People's Bank of China (PBoC), equipped with an array of effective tools, is resolute in ensuring that the rate of depreciation of the Chinese Yuan (CNY) remains under control.

Amidst this backdrop, a prevailing consensus among many foreign exchange traders is that the pace of CNY weakening will gradually ease. Despite this projection, given the prevailing decline in interest rates and the strategic management of volatility, the Yuan continues to retain its appeal as a favorable choice for funding carry trades.

USD/CNY daily chart

The upcoming Jackson Hole conference is set to host Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Ueda, who is expected to participate in the comprehensive panel discussion scheduled for Saturday. Notably, Governor Ueda's most recent public address took place during the ECB's Sintra conference in June, preceding the Yield Curve Control (YCC) adjustment carried out at the July BoJ meeting. This prominent platform offers him an initial opportunity to delve into the intricacies of the YCC modification and its potential ramifications for Japan's interest rates and foreign exchange markets.

Shifting focus, the month of July witnessed the UK's Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) undergoing a more substantial decline than initially anticipated. Specifically, the services PMI, a gauge of the services sector's performance, contracted from 51.5 to 48.7, descending below the consensus projection of 51.0. Concurrently, the manufacturing PMI underwent a decline from 45.3 to 42.5, a deviation from the consensus forecast of 45.0.

UK Manufacturing PMI

This downturn signified a significant milestone: the services index dipped beneath the crucial threshold of 50, denoting a contraction within this sector. Additionally, the manufacturing PMI has retreated to levels reminiscent of those observed during the initial COVID-19 lockdown in May 2020.

In the realm of precious metals, today witnessed a climb in gold prices to a pinnacle not observed in two weeks. This surge was triggered by lackluster US business activity data, thereby sparking conjecture that the Federal Reserve might encounter limitations in its ability to sustain a trajectory of interest rate hikes.

XAU/USD daily chart

Extending their winning streak for the fifth consecutive session, gold prices continued their rebound from the earlier August dip that had driven them to a five-month low. This recovery gained momentum with the dollar's retreat and the easing of Treasury yields from their recent peaks. Notably, spot gold managed to reestablish itself above the significant benchmark of $1,900 per ounce.

Despite the encouraging climb, traders maintained a cautious outlook as the start of the Jackson Hole Symposium loomed on the horizon later in the day. This symposium is anticipated to furnish additional insights into the monetary policy stance of the United States, thus harboring the potential to exert influence on prevailing market dynamics.