EUR/USD Summary for End Week 4 - 2019

OANDA:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
So a sudden drop back down to 95.81 for the DXY on Friday saw almost everything push northward including the Euro .

Technically it looks like this may be another attempt to reverse the downward trend from the beginning of 2018 and signal a new phase of Euro strength. That may be the case but we can see price has already 'rested' against resistance at 1.14025 and faces further resistance at 1.15060. A positive Tenkan Sen (red line) cross over the Kijun Sen (blue line) would add to the belief that the trend direction may well reverse, although given this would likely be below the Kumo cloud (red area), we should still consider this as weak or incomplete. Indeed further historic S/R at 1.17541 will need to be overcome within the Kumo.

Fundamentally a continual weakening of the US Dollar will help any reversal to Euro strength. Given markets appear to have already factored in the Fed halting any further rate rises through 2019 (not sure I agree on that), the future path of least resistance for the US$ may well be downward



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