Fundamental analysis
The fundamental analysis of the EUR/USD exchange rate shows that the two currency areas are currently in different phases of their economic cycles. The US economy has already entered a recession, while the European economy is still growing. This suggests a stronger dollar in the coming weeks.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has already committed to an aggressive rate hike policy to contain inflation. The European Central Bank (ECB), on the other hand, has not yet decided to change course. This could further make the dollar attractive.
Statistical analysis
The statistical analysis of the EUR/USD exchange rate development over the past 10 years shows that the exchange rate has shown a strong correlation with the US key rate in recent months. The higher the Fed's rate, the stronger the dollar tends to rise.
Over the past 10 years, the EUR/USD exchange rate has averaged 1.10. However, the exchange rate has fluctuated within a broad range of 0.90 to 1.20 in recent years.
Technical analysis
The technical analysis of the EUR/USD exchange rate shows that the exchange rate has undergone a trend reversal from an upward trend to a downward trend in recent weeks. The exchange rate is currently in a downward trend and has stabilized at the support level of 1.08.
It is possible that the exchange rate could fall to the next support level of 1.07 in the coming days. If the exchange rate breaks through this level, it could move into a larger downward trend.
Forecast
Based on the fundamental, statistical, and technical analysis, it is likely that the EUR/USD exchange rate will continue to fall in the coming days. The probability of a downward trend is 60%, and the probability of an upward trend is 40%.
Recommendation
For traders who want to trade the short-term trend, a short position is recommended. For traders who want to trade the long-term trend, a wait-and-see position is recommended.
Risk warning
The forecast is based on data from the past 10 years. The future development of the EUR/USD exchange rate cannot be predicted with certainty. There is always the risk of losses.
The fundamental analysis of the EUR/USD exchange rate shows that the two currency areas are currently in different phases of their economic cycles. The US economy has already entered a recession, while the European economy is still growing. This suggests a stronger dollar in the coming weeks.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has already committed to an aggressive rate hike policy to contain inflation. The European Central Bank (ECB), on the other hand, has not yet decided to change course. This could further make the dollar attractive.
Statistical analysis
The statistical analysis of the EUR/USD exchange rate development over the past 10 years shows that the exchange rate has shown a strong correlation with the US key rate in recent months. The higher the Fed's rate, the stronger the dollar tends to rise.
Over the past 10 years, the EUR/USD exchange rate has averaged 1.10. However, the exchange rate has fluctuated within a broad range of 0.90 to 1.20 in recent years.
Technical analysis
The technical analysis of the EUR/USD exchange rate shows that the exchange rate has undergone a trend reversal from an upward trend to a downward trend in recent weeks. The exchange rate is currently in a downward trend and has stabilized at the support level of 1.08.
It is possible that the exchange rate could fall to the next support level of 1.07 in the coming days. If the exchange rate breaks through this level, it could move into a larger downward trend.
Forecast
Based on the fundamental, statistical, and technical analysis, it is likely that the EUR/USD exchange rate will continue to fall in the coming days. The probability of a downward trend is 60%, and the probability of an upward trend is 40%.
Recommendation
For traders who want to trade the short-term trend, a short position is recommended. For traders who want to trade the long-term trend, a wait-and-see position is recommended.
Risk warning
The forecast is based on data from the past 10 years. The future development of the EUR/USD exchange rate cannot be predicted with certainty. There is always the risk of losses.
Trade closed: target reached