In order to analyze EURUSD move we can use intermarket analysis as well, and as you can see for a past couple of month we have high positive correlation between EURUSD and TLT ( US 20 year treasury bond ETF).
Right now that price has been trapped in a rangy area for a Days, we can say for a breakout of any side we need to see confirmation from TLT as well. which means if price wants to create a Higher high and penetrate the high we need to see TLT create new high as well and goes above the arrow on TLT curve.
However, if TLT is unable to create new high but EURUSD does there might be intermarket divergence between these two assets and that perhaps could signal for a bearish divergence which can be followed by a downside reversal on EURUSD.
A third scenario would be that they both fail to create high and turn to the downside which in this case EURUSD chance to break to the downside is higher.
A lot of news can have impact on the movement of TLT like tomorrow unemployment rate but for sure the single most important one would be federal reserve fund rate which going to be announce on 14th of December, and if fed hike rates is lower than expectation that can bring TLT Higher and drive EURUSD Higher as well.
Right now that price has been trapped in a rangy area for a Days, we can say for a breakout of any side we need to see confirmation from TLT as well. which means if price wants to create a Higher high and penetrate the high we need to see TLT create new high as well and goes above the arrow on TLT curve.
However, if TLT is unable to create new high but EURUSD does there might be intermarket divergence between these two assets and that perhaps could signal for a bearish divergence which can be followed by a downside reversal on EURUSD.
A third scenario would be that they both fail to create high and turn to the downside which in this case EURUSD chance to break to the downside is higher.
A lot of news can have impact on the movement of TLT like tomorrow unemployment rate but for sure the single most important one would be federal reserve fund rate which going to be announce on 14th of December, and if fed hike rates is lower than expectation that can bring TLT Higher and drive EURUSD Higher as well.