From last week's COT report we can notice a major increase in Leveraged Funds long positions and a decrease in Dealer long positions. This may be a sign for a short-term bullish momentum. Since the 29.06.2020 a upper trendline is respected in this pair and since March a wide angle formation can be seen. Critical levels on the 1h time-frame are 1.52971-1.53075 and the 1.52700-1.52800 (both are marked in orange). The 1.53000 area aligns perfectly with the golden zone of the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement .
There are 2 possible scenarios:
1. The downtrend ends with a close above the previous lower highs and so we can expect a move towards the 1.5400 area.
2. The downtrend is respected and we see the last wave reaching new lower lows for this structure. A confirmation will be a strong rejection near the 1.53100 area. If this scenario happens a new possibility can be seen from a future M formation. An entry point towards the next monthly critical will be the 1.523 mark.
Happy Trading!
There are 2 possible scenarios:
1. The downtrend ends with a close above the previous lower highs and so we can expect a move towards the 1.5400 area.
2. The downtrend is respected and we see the last wave reaching new lower lows for this structure. A confirmation will be a strong rejection near the 1.53100 area. If this scenario happens a new possibility can be seen from a future M formation. An entry point towards the next monthly critical will be the 1.523 mark.
Happy Trading!