theforexcast

EURAUD - Short Trading Idea on the 4hs Chart.

Short
FX:EURAUD   Euro / Australian Dollar
Introduction:

Please read the full post before considering taking action.

This past month has been quite a ride for anyone involved in the forex markets. To an extent, it showcased the necessity of allying our technical analysis with a more proper assessment of the political landscape. While a stable market provides us with reasonably well-determined supply and demand zones for each currency, facilitating our job in forecasting zones of interest, the immediacy of moves caused by governmental agents' announcements sometimes blow it out of the water.

Nevertheless, the charts have been showing us that technical analysis is still applying to this particular pair.

On the charts we see that EURAUD is right now sitting at a previous resistance. It could form a double top here and this could be the beginning of a big move down. All the while, should it break, we have another resistance about 90 pips above. Mind you, though, that this second resistance would be the highest point EURAUD has reached in over 10 years.

How to Proceed:

We opened a short here, while a hedge long has been in place for a while. We have scaling orders until the next resistance up above.

Take Profit:

Swaps are positive, so we plan on keeping these orders open until we have to clear positions for liquidity purposes.

Stop-loss (Invalidation of Analysis):

Stops here are 1.64000.

Risks Involved and Key Events to Tune Yourselves to:

A resolution on the US-China trade will certainly move the markets. Keeping track of a forex calendar is also of extreme importance here.

ETA on This Trade:

According to the ATR and for how long these waves play out, we are expecting to hold these positions for at least 4 weeks. It can take more or less time, depending on the market's reaction.

Side-notes:

Please keep in mind that the markets have been reacting strongly to news these days, which could further create instability. We are trading the whole forex system here, not only a pair. These positions should be watched closely.

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