Situations like these really give a headache to data analysts. So much data - no insights. Which data to follow? Data is all over the place, how to fairly separate trend analysis? How to adjust for irrational human behaviour? How to cluster without overfitting? Where do you draw the baseline? And many more... 😵💫
Let's take a step back. At a high level - it is obvious the price is trending downwards since 20th of Feb. Price have achieved that magic triple-dip (if such thing exists). The market is not yet ready to accept ETH under $1400 and BTC under $48k. The market has also refused to get back to the previous channel, refused another bull run and refused ETH above $1700 and BTC above $51k respectively. is dropping and that indicates low demand. It feels as the market is just waiting for the next big signal (pump or dump). What's next?
Will the market go up? I believe it is unlikely, it already missed a big opportunity to breakthrough into a bull run yesterday.
Will the market go down? If judging only based ETH data, I would say unlikely, as the price has bounced hard a few times of $1550 which now has formed strong support. However, ETH is not leading the market. BTC is! Looking at BTC , the price is a lot less stable. There is an obvious mumble that the market has demand for BTC at $42-40k, therefore the price is a bit in limbo. Based on BTC data further drop is very likely.
Will the price go sideways? Well, this is the key question! Since alts are dictated by BTC , it is reasonable it will wait for BTC to lead. Therefore the price is a bit normalized at the moment. Even though the price seems to be forming a strong sideways channel, it will be broken as soon as BTC makes a move for alts to follow.
Position is neutral (based on ETH data), however, I will call it as short (based on BTC data)
Forecasted possible highs at unlikely $1720 (rejected to enter the previous channel)
Mid-way point moved down to $1700 (basically anything above that price is overpriced)
Forecasted low (except any unforeseeable dumps) are at $1550 (strong support) and $1400
Have fun trading! 🤑
If you would like to have early access to my TA's write "ETH reached the bottom" or "ETH will continue to drop" in the comments down below.